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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21794)	7/27/2005 8:57:34 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78516

Hi Paul - I have noticed that many (if not all) of these timber/paper companies are involved in asbestos litigation. From a recent article (http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2005/03/14/daily20.html) "...Georgia-Pacific has been battling asbestos litigation for years. It recently reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that the number of asbestos claims filed against it continued to decline in 2004, even as the amount of money it paid on claims hit the $200 million mark. At the end of 2004, there were 59,700 pending claims, down from 64,300 at the end of 2003. During 2004, 26,500 new claims were filed against the company, down from 39,000 new claims filed in 2003..." So how does the value investor work this pending liability into their analysis? Are these stocks already discounted by the market and enough monies have already been set aside for the worst case scernio? One of my best value plays was buying HAL (Halliburton Co) in 2002 at $9.00/share when their stock tanked on pending asbestos liabilities. Mr. Market overreacted and management was able to cap their liability by setting up a trust fund for "all" potential claimants. I wonder why these timber/paper companies have not done the same thing? Perhaps until these asbestos suits are resolved, the true value of these companies will not be realized. Notice that the proactive managements have either already spun off their real estate timber assets or have future plans to. I do know that when the dust does settle and it is eventually resolved for the industry, the stock prices will be much higher. Halliburton Co (HAL) hit a new multi year high today at $56.35. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21794)	11/14/2005 5:03:55 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78516

IP - International paper. I bought a starter position today at a little more than 30$. I am hoping a similar move that we have seen with GP after koch's buyout. my speculation is simply that the private market value is much higher than th current stock market valuation. The timber holdings should be at least half of IP's market cap, and they are easy to sell, since demand for timber land from investors is very strong. My guess is that IP can fetch 45$/share.