Why the Saudi envoy really went home
By John R Bradley
The Saudi ruling family has tried to convince the world that everything is just as it should be inside the kingdom in the two months since the ailing King Fahd was hospitalized with chronic pneumonia.
But the resignation this week of Prince Bandar, the Saudi ambassador to Washington for 22 years, and the announcement that he will be replaced by the current London ambassador, Prince Turki al-Faisal, heightens speculation that an announcement of the king's death is imminent. Bandar's dramatic return to Riyadh will allow him to jostle for position when Crown Prince Abdullah becomes king.
The long-anticipated death of Fahd has given the al-Saud plenty of time to plan for the consequences, and the immediate succession of Abdullah is unlikely to be controversial. But subsequent successions are unlikely to be so smooth.
In many ways, the succession question could not have come at a better time: Saudi Arabia is flush with oil money and Abdullah recently completed a successful visit with President George W Bush. Abdullah is popular among the Saudi masses. He has positioned himself as a strong Muslim leader by showing respect and providing funding for the pious, and uniting the kingdom's warring factions.
He has an undeniable bond with, and concern about, the impoverished and disenfranchised in Saudi society, even visiting slums to hear the concerns of their inhabitants. He is known for having a personal commitment to reform – albeit measured, limited and slow. And his close relationship with the US is balanced by his willingness to criticize American policies - and mores.
But Abdullah is only a short-term answer. Seventy-nine years old, his good health cannot be relied on. The al-Saud have taken this into account, having named Defense Minister Prince Sultan – Prince Bandar's father – as next in line; he will assume the title of crown prince when King Fahd dies.
But Sultan is 76, and while Abdullah is a half-brother of King Fahd, Sultan is a full brother and shares the same mother. Family matters and jealousies always lurk in the background, and it is conventional wisdom that they loath one another. With succession again in question, background may come into the open.
The sensitivities of the al-Saud to open discussion of succession, and any suggestion of dissension within the leading ranks of the family, were apparent in 2003 when American ambassador Robert Jordan was ordered from the kingdom after the London-based pan-Arab newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi claimed that he had stated that Washington wanted Abdullah to become the next ruler when Fahd died, with a member of the kingdom's younger generation of princes becoming the next crown prince.
Two issues were raised by the al-Quds al-Arabi article.
First, the continued dominance of the sons of the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz, and the opportunity of each to serve as king. Were Abdullah to choose his own crown prince in place of Sultan, as a 1992 Royal Decree allows, the power grab would set off reverberations in the family that could affect its stability.
While Abdullah is unlikely to upset the implicit pact, his age, and that of his immediate successors, leaves open the second issue: transfer of power to the so-called third generation of princes. And this issue is far more complicated.
For Abdul Aziz had at least 40 sons, and they could overlook their own jealousies, not least from having different mothers, for the common good. That is far more difficult when there are six fathers, many mothers and numerous princes.
The passing of the second generation, of whom Sultan and Interior Minister Prince Naif are the last, is not far off, and is likely to lead to competition that could be profoundly destabilizing.
After all, the al-Saud have divvied up responsibilities in an effort to keep all branches of the family happy, with the result that each separate region of the country is governed as a quasi-autonomous fief.
All the more dangerous is that the various armed forces - the military, counterbalanced by the internal security forces and tribal National Guard - are commanded by competing princes: Sultan, Naif and Abdullah respectively.
Ensconced in power, jealous of their privileges, suspicious as any who has worn the crown, faced with challenges to their positions, various princes may fight to maintain their roles.
Indeed, the main reason behind the resignation of Prince Bandar is believed to be the friction-creating situation between him and Abdullah, and the latter's increasing dependence on Adel al-Jubair, his private counselor in Washington, for communicating messages to the US administration.
Turki, meanwhile, is a brother of Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, who announced Bandar's resignation in Riyadh last week, even though Bandar had issued a statement denying the fact a week before. Saud is Abdullah's closest ally. The jostling for position has clearly begun.
But the kingdom needs change, and the strong leadership of a single-minded prince, to overcome its severe social and economic problems. Time is not on their side. Those waiting in the wings who are most disciplined and determined – and desperate to seize the oil wealth and claim all the prestige that comes with the governorship of the two holy shrines – are the followers of Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden.
John R Bradley's book, Saudi Arabia Exposed: Inside a Kingdom in Crisis, has just been published.
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I guess Bush had better hurry up before Saudi is added to the pot. |
