Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (34508)	7/29/2005 2:15:16 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 116555

well of course it is: who is shoppping for anything other than an third home?

To: ild who wrote (34508)	7/29/2005 5:06:07 PM
From: RWS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

"BDI keeps plunging" Why? What does it mean to you? RWS

To: ild who wrote (34508)	7/30/2005 6:16:52 PM
From: mx_squid	Respond to of 116555

re: BDI keeps plunging I know Frank Venerosa points to this index in order to support his bearish stance on metals particularly copper. However I don't quite buy it as portending anything since according to what I've read 1. There have been new freighter ships added recently implying excess capacity. 2. It's in the Chinese best interest to talk down freight rates and commodity prices even as prices continue to firm for coal for example and they draw down from stockpiles they may be hoarding 3. Eyewitness accounts talk of backlogged ships at Chinese harbors waiting up to a week to unload. This too could be a damper on ship rates as there is no point scheduling if you need to sit idle for extended lengths of time. I'm not touting the stock, but I use Bucyrus (mining machinery manufacturer) as a leading indicator of what MINERS think about their futures (not heavily short Wall Street funds). Bucyrus had record earnings and has a record backlog of orders for drilling, hauling equipment and they guided higher recently. 3 month chart. Recent low just ahead of earnings as "lowered outlook" would've fit neatly with the deflation scenario. No such luck for shorts in the stock. finance.yahoo.com I maintain there wouldn't be a rush to increase mining capacity and to withdraw forward hedges if the miners didn't have firm long-term commitments regardless of what the futures market is saying.