To: energyplay who wrote (66720 ) 7/30/2005 2:43:33 AM From: TobagoJack Read Replies (1) | Respond to Hello EP, taking your points one at a time, to develop my own ideas more fully, I expect:<<Overcapacity : I expect a number of countries will throw up tariff and non-tariff barriers in an attempt to avoid having their local industries gutted>> YES, certainly, but may not work well, because in an environment where not everyone does it at the same nasty time, the ones who do will do relatively and cumulatively less well than those who do not throw up barriers, i.e. US duties China autos but does not do same to Japan will encourage Japan to source from China in order to supply to US, and / or US duties China autos but Europe does not, will see Europe having a higher standard of living than US. Cumulatively, over time, the mass of math will begin to show its weight. <<Japan should have an interesting response - they will take the China sourced parts, then try to keep their domestic suppliers alive. As for the plants they have set up in other Asian countries, will they abandon them or try to find a way to keep them on life support ?>> It would be in Japan's interest to keep globalization going, because (a) their country is not large in the continental sense, nor self-sufficient, and (b) their invested sums only has value in the context of continuing global trade, else all is nought. <<I expect we will see the resource countries - Canada, Austrailia, Chile, New Zealand and to soem degree South Africa and Brazil do well.>> Almost certainly, as in whatever happens, and they all have an incentive to trade, because each is not continental, and has surplus of what others need.
