To: John Carragher who wrote (128478 ) 8/1/2005 7:22:47 PM From: TimF Respond to of 793841 In case you didn't see the post with this link "Further analysis indicated that the cameras are contributing to a definite increase in rear-end crashes, a possible decrease in angle crashes, a net decrease in injury crashes attributable to red light running, and an increase in total injury crashes. Page xiii Summary of Empirical Bayes Method (Level 4 Analysis) [Editor's note: only Fairfax County data reflects the most rigorous analysis. Other cities did not provide volume, yellow time, and data on other key factors.] The latter half of Appendix D shows the results of an Empirical Bayes analysis for Fairfax County crash data only. These results suggest the following: * The cameras are correlated with an increase in total crashes of 8% to 17%. * The cameras are correlated with an increase in rear-end crashes related to the presence of a red light; the increase ranges between 50% and 71%. * The cameras are correlated with a decrease in crashes attributable to red light running, and the decrease is between 24% and 33%. * The cameras are correlated with a decrease in injury crashes attributable to red light running, with the decrease being between 20% and 33%. * The cameras are correlated with an increase in total injury crashes, with the increase being between 7% and 24%. Page 28 ...but it obscures the that only a small percentage of crashes are attributable to red light running. Data from Virginia’s Department of Motor Vehicles, for example, suggested that in 1998 (a year when no red light cameras were in operation), only 3.3% of all crashes involved a driver who “ran traffic control” (DMV, 1999). Page 124"thenewspaper.com