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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mongo2116 who wrote (57100)	8/1/2005 1:19:27 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . A few quick thoughts. . . Gene and all, RE: short-selling . . . it is merely another way to play markets - no prob. Probably greater than 85% of American corporations skirt the rules in one way or another - doesn't mean they "deserve" to go to zero. Scammies of course do. But apparently he was not only shorting stocks reported to him by FBI agents to be scammy, as I understand the court documents, posts, etc. he and others allegedly were extorting shares from the scammy companies in order to release the pressure from short-selling they created. There was no Robin Hood or Batman about it. It was just as criminal as holding up a liquor store. And yes, I understand there were more innocent parties than crooked ones. We tend to focus on the crooked actions, of course, and just throw all the babies out with the bath water. Sorry 'bout that. RE: the market. . . Yes, of course you are correct. This rally has been greater than expected. The reason is the unexpected strength in the economy. Today's pending construction figures blew me away, as did the producer manufacturing. The economy is much stronger at this point in time than I had figured. As such, the "unusual summer rally" or whatever we decided to call it, is slightly stronger and certainly much longer than I had anticipated. RE: life. . . Unfortunately for me, domestic issues have much of my attention. I just finished teaching summer semester and while planning some courses for the fall, I am taking a "vacation" by going home . . . where my wife and youngest son just went through a sort of hell when the neighbor's house was struck by lightning and burned down. . . an incredible story. Anyway, since then, they both also had accidents in our home. Needless to say, I am distracted in a major way. RE: rest of 2005. . . But certainly, you are correct. July has dimpled the carbon copy. So is it only off by one-twelfth? er.. one-twelvth? er.. 1/12th? Or will this variation affect the last five months of the year as well? I am still evaluating this. What I am looking at is the will of the small investor to continue to move the markets higher. While it has been impressive, we small investors tend to go on vacation, too. So I am leaning toward the current rally showing signs of breaking down this week. I tend to think the way this next week proceeds will tell us how the rest of the summer (including much of September) should go. . . since many will be taking vacations this month. I have difficulty imagining this summer emulating 1998, but I guess it is possible. . . provided tons of sidelined cash finds its way back into the markets during August. . . which I would imagine is somewhat unprecedented. But more importantly, there is simply no clear leadership sector to drive the equities markets northward, nor is there mounting volume. Though I am open to argument of this subject. In my opinion, the rally is not to be trusted. However, "never short a dull market" comes to mind. So there we are. Deer in the headlights about sums it up. Hope you are well and best wishes, Rande Is