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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: schzammm who wrote (21818)8/3/2005 3:11:02 PM
From: Ray Rueb  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78667
 
May I ask, what are your short positions?

In a posting, you said:
"Alas, our joint account is 95% margined, mostly short, oh well!!"

Awhile back I posted (on the 50% gains thread) that I thought a "good old-fashioned, lift all boats, rally" was coming. Now that my portfolio is up 15% since that posting, I'm beginning to think that maybe I need to start balancing my quality long positions with some GOOD QUALITY short positions (or would that be bad quality companies?).

Value swings both ways: like a company, go long - don't like it, go short. The problem with this is, some people hate companies even though they are fundamentally sound (like NFI). I always need to take someone else's short recommendations with a grain of salt: is this personal or is the a business reason for shorting?

My top four favorite current shorts are:
1) DRYS - a POS IPO in boring overbought dry goods shipping industry where the CEO used IPO money to buy ships from his sister's company. Remember, this is an industry that has razor thin margins and really makes its money on timely asset sales. Ask yourself, who got the deal between him and his sister? I'm currently long at 14 to take advantage of a minor upswing to maybe 16 where I will re-short. I had been short at 19.60. This is a $5 stock.
2) NWAC - Airline with a mechanics strike delayed by a federally mandated "cooling off period", currently seeking billions in cost reductions. How can they possibly avoid BK?
3) TIVO - Comcast is giving away the same service they're trying to sell on subscription? Dish TV doing the same... how long will they last?
4) IPII - over-hyped micro float stock, float is 1.93MM. As soon as the pumpers are done inflating it, this should be a classic short back to reality, life below 10.

So, what are your favorite companies to short?

You all be careful out there,
Ray