To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1375 ) 7/30/2005 2:47:56 PM From: Wharf Rat Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24213 Within Limits: Symptoms of Overshoot By definition, overshoot is a condition in which the delayed signals from the environment are not yet strong enough to force an end to growth. How, then, can society tell if it is in overshoot? The short list here may help. We’ve grouped symptoms of overshoot described in Limits To Growth: the Thirty Year Update, into three categories. [snip] — Based on Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (pp. 176-7). Read the original here. Primary Physical Symptoms Resource stocks fall, and wastes and pollution accumulate Capital, resources, and labor diverted to activities compensating for the loss of services that were formerly provided without cost by nature (for example, sewage treatment, air purification, water purification, flood control, pest control, restoration of soil nutrients, pollination, or the preservation of species) Capital, resources, and labor diverted from final goods production to exploitation of scarcer, more distant, deeper, or more dilute resources. Technologies invented to make use of lower-quality, smaller, more dispersed, less valuable resources, because the higher-value ones are gone. Failing natural pollution cleanup mechanisms; rising levels of pollution. Resulting Physical Symptoms As resource stocks fall and wastes accumulate the behavior of natural systems may change with consequences for ecosystems and human communities Growing chaos in natural systems, with “natural” disasters more frequent and more severe because of less resilience in the environmental system. Resulting Social Symptoms Society tries to live with, compensate for, and adapt to the primary physical symptoms (note: these symptoms do not include responses that address the decline of the resource base in the first place, such responses are catalogued in Signs of Life Within Limits) Capital depreciation exceeding investment, and maintenance deferred, so there is deterioration in capital stocks, especially long-lived infrastructure. Growing demands for capital, resources, and labor used by the military or industry to gain access to, secure, and defend resources that are increasingly concentrated in fewer, more remote, or increasingly hostile regions. Investment in human resources (education, health care, shelter) postponed in order to meet immediate consumption, investment, or security needs, or to pay debts. Debts a rising percentage of annual real output. Eroding goals for health and environment. Increasing conflicts, especially conflicts over sources or sinks. Shifting consumption patterns as the population can no longer pay the price of what it really wants and, instead, purchases what it can afford. Declining respect for the instruments of collective government as they are used increasingly by the elites to preserve or increase their share of a declining resource base. Do you observe any of these symptoms in your “real world?” If you do, you should suspect that your society is in advanced stages of overshoot. — Based on Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (pp. 176-7). alternative-energy.ws -------------------------------------------------------- Poll from the same site... With regard to our global energy future, how do you identify? As a Cassandra (outspoken and unheard). 13 24.5% As a hopeful realist. 13 24.5% As a pessimist. 13 24.5% As a doomer (pathological pessimist). 6 11.3% As a realist. 6 11.3% I haven't been paying attention. 2 3.8% As a Pollyana (pathological optimist). 0 0% As an optimist. 0 0% Cassandra Rat