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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (37343)	8/1/2005 11:55:58 AM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think we see (CL at) 40, possibly 35-37. 1-2 years from now. Looking 18 months out, the Feb '07 CL contract is going for $62.39. If you have a target price of $36 that would be a return of $26,390 on $3,850 worth of margin in 18 months. Personally, I think shorting oil would be one of the quickest ways to go broke. Tell me when you stop out, add, or take profits. I shorted 2 more TYU5's this morning. I plan on shorting at least 5 today. Any close over 43.06 is a green light for me to short more. I believe the TNX will be above 47 before these things expire. You are even going to add (greed?) should it initially move your favor. That move has gotten every bond bear their heads handed to them for the last two years. As far as adding to my position and being greedy, I am guilty as charged. Surely you’ve heard the mantra “Never add to a losing position.” If you believe in that mantra, it doesn’t take a leap of intellect to believe in "always add to your winning positions." I highly recommend you read the two books on Jesse Livermore if you’ve haven’t read them. (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and Jesse Livermore World's Greatest Stock Trader). He believed in initially taking a 20% position and adding clips of 20% as the position went his way