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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (37469)	8/1/2005 10:21:13 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

TNX made a new high for the move over 4.3% this morning.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (37469)	8/1/2005 10:27:18 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Think that corresponds to what we saw in the MBAA purchase index in June. We will get a more real time look at that one Wed, and the following week (for 8-5) ought be revealing. It needs to start breaking hard from these high 400 numbers to confirm all the inventory builds, speculator vacancies/low rent and price reductions obvious elsewhere. Overall what July looked like to me (and I've looked very, very hard), was stress on sellers especially speculators some of whom are trying to bail, lots of new listings and built inventory, and somewhat lower prices, net, net a rollover. But the last gasp buyers stepped up to pick up some of what they perceived as "bargains" off of 5% price reductions. There is also additional stress on the lenders if they are still subsidizing borrowers to the extent these MBAA ARMs rates suggest. There is no free ride here, somebody is eating cow dung dust. The 1 year Libor was 3.86 at the end of June, and is currently 4.16%, that's 30 bp, not the 10 bp shown here. 7-1 521 4.60% ARMs index 7-8 489 4.56 ARM 7-15 489 4.63 7-22 485 4.70 I think the real story however are closings, if we can confirm deals are falling from escrow, that will be another strong confirmation.