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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (66849)	8/1/2005 12:57:24 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

But it is still going up... so maybe doesn't match the Kondratief cycle?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (66849)	8/1/2005 4:28:08 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Re: Debt chart - I think the Federal chart (lower) is pretty accurate. There has been a large increase in NET debt. There has been an even larger increase in nominal debt and nominal assets, and these numbers tend to only pick up one side . That makes that chart go way up. If you have read "Liar's Poker" which touches on the creation of the secondary mortage market with bundeled mortgages, you can expect where some of these errors will show up. This happend in the 1980s, when cheaper computing power plus GREED encourage more financial engineering. Debt will tend to remain in the US so tax deductions are availible. Assets matched to that debt will tend to move overseas with the same owners to avoid taxation. Most of these government statistics are from the steam age. Think how reliable unemployment, personal savings, trade balance, and natural gas storage are. Not to mention "hedonic" corrections to the GDP.... ***** One key question is what is the marginal productivity increase for new debt ? For a number of years, some economists have been concerned about the low increase in GDP for the amount of additional debt. Amazingly, the economy has continue to grow in this environment. BCA or some of the private research houses may have reasonably good net debt numbers.