Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (34658)	8/1/2005 1:32:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Stephen King: America and Britain: united by debt but divided by economic performance - so far news.independent.co.uk

To: regli who wrote (34658)	8/1/2005 1:39:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The Rise to Ruin by Marc Faber safehaven.com

To: regli who wrote (34658)	8/1/2005 1:48:15 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Throwing Stones From Glass Houses [An article about home prices and energy prices - Mish] Not only is there a slowdown in home price appreciation, which in and of itself will lead to lower home equity extractions, but an outright decline in housing prices may be in the works. Such a scenario threatens to create considerable financial instability given the proliferation of adjustable-rate mortgages (for example, over 80% of the mortgages in California are adjustable-rate), many of which were “financially engineered” to get people into houses they cannot afford. According to the National Association of Realtors, a third of homebuyers put no down payment on their mortgages, and a further 25% of mortgages are “interest-only” (no principal repayment for three to five years). Apparently, the hottest new mortgage product is something called an “option ARM” where borrowers have the option to not even pay full interest(!), thereby allowing them to grow the principal amount owing on the mortgage over time. Such reckless lending practices can only occur during a housing bubble, and work under the presumption that housing prices can only go up. When they don’t, it can have serious implications to the US financial system when a plethora of houses are foreclosed that have amounts owing far in excess of what they are worth. .... .... Here’s another piece of data that we find encouraging to our oil thesis. Due to lower than expected demand, the IEA cut its oil demand forecast for the year by 400,000 barrels per day. How is this bullish for oil? Because the price of oil went to $60 in spite of lower than expected demand! Does that mean oil would now be $100 if demand came in as expected? We’ll find out next year when demand is expected to increase by another 1.8 million barrels per day. As is quickly becoming apparent, the era of cheap oil is a thing of the past. Even heretofore oil-rich countries are starting to look for alternative energy sources. In the next 10 years, Indonesia plans to halve its domestic oil consumption and double its use of coal. That’s just one country. It is our belief that more of the world will turn to coal (and in the longer term Uranium) to meet its growing energy needs. This is why we continue to be bullish on all energy and not just oil. In our view, the end of cheap oil also means, by implication, the end of cheap coal, natural gas, and uranium. victoradair.com

To: regli who wrote (34658)	8/1/2005 2:07:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Oil Shock 321energy.com in the U.S., where output fell by 160,000 barrels a day, and in Britain, where output declined by 230,000 barrels a day Rien on the FOOL comments: Norway was down 590,000 BPD YOY in June, but they claim that this is a one-of event. Norway claims to be able to keep production stable until .... 2007. (Hmm, that should put me at ease?)

To: regli who wrote (34658)	8/1/2005 2:43:26 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Inflation Adjusted oil prices inflationdata.com