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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (37521)	8/1/2005 8:09:12 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Interesting factoid and chart in your Fitch find, on page 7: "From 2006-2008, $377.3 billion of high yield and BBB bonds(of $700b US high yield market) mature." The chart shows # of issues, which isn't that useful, but perhaps a caption showing total amount during period? Lots of BBB in 06. Reminds me of the IO reset chart.

To: ild who wrote (37521)	8/2/2005 11:01:29 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 110194

Latest Testimony Shows Fed Head Is Targeting Asset Prices, McCulley SaysM A very obvious conclusion that is easy to miss in the various spins we hear and read. And Greenie has successfully popped bubbles before. The thing is, every pop of a bubble seems recently to lead to a new one, though this one might be different since the popping of the real property bubble will take more time than the popping of the dot.bomb bubble. Any sectors left to inflate after the current one is dissipated? For obvious reasons, it surely won't be the overall stock market.

To: ild who wrote (37521)	8/2/2005 11:03:22 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

China: The Slowdown Has Begun Andy Xie (Hong Kong) morganstanley.com

To: ild who wrote (37521)	8/2/2005 1:43:02 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Quoted from your PIMCO post: <True, in saying that he sees froth in the property market, Greenspan would effectively be taking a shot at the most important asset in the average American’s portfolio. Some 70% of Americans own their own homes now. So he could actually be perceived as being more of a skunk at the picnic than he would have been, had he attacked the equity market bubble. It is tricky politically. But one way he could do it is by not attacking the primary residence. He could say, "Yes, I see froth and speculation, but it is not in the market where responsible citizens are putting roofs over the heads of their families. It is in the second-home market and the condo-flipping market." Which is actually the truth. That is where the speculation is. And the reason you can get speculation in the second home market or the condo markets is that those transaction costs don’t involve you moving. As Greenspan has said time and again, it is hard to get speculation in the primary residence market because you have to live somewhere. But a second home or condo, you can buy and then flip out six months later. So he might just use micro tools on housing. That is the big issue for me. Will he do that, or are we going to water our potted plants with a fire hose? We won’t know until he testifies.