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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (37548)	8/2/2005 11:20:00 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Surprise at Gold Dehedging Uptick but Slowing Trend Seen Intact By Tim Wood 02 Aug 2005 at 06:54 AM EDT St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- A new report estimates that gold miners reduced bullion sold under contract by 2.5 million over the second quarter, more than double the pace in the first quarter and despite a nearly identical average gold price over the two periods. The Hedge Book is a joint venture between Virtual Metals and Halliburton Mineral Services, and sponsored by Mitsui Global Precious Metals. As a precursor to the release of the detailed report, the researchers report that 45 out of 60 companies reduced their hedging programmes, whilst just four increased them. Unusually, the primary gold hedgers – Anglogold Ashanti [AU], Barrick [ABX], Newcrest [NCM.AX] and Placer Dome [PDG] – did not dominate hedge book changes this past quarter. Only 50% of the second quarter dehedging could be ascribed to the four even though they together represent 70% of the worldwide hedge book tracked by Virtual Metals and Halliburton. Gold hedging mavens have been warning since mid-2004 that gold dehedging would decelerate as the incentive to do so diminished. Dehedging has lent support to the gold price by virtue of making buyers out of the usual sellers in the market. The latest report might suggest that most of the price sensitivity is related to hedge book decisions by the senior league of producers since the metal has steadily held onto levels above $420 despite the loss of dehedging demand. According to the report, The average rate of dehedging in 2004 was 3.6 Moz a quarter. In the first half of 2005 it averaged just 1.9 Moz a quarter. resourceinvestor.com

To: russwinter who wrote (37548)	8/2/2005 12:25:35 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, if they are somehow picking up recordings, then you have to look at week to week or month to month. 7-28 to 8-2 got a weekend sandwiched in there so it might have appeared to have a big jump. There are no recordings over the weekends. One data point that is very difficult to compile is the loss severity itself. In other words, how much is the actual dollar loss for each defaulting loan. You can look at the MIs, or C-BASS, or some of the subprimes and see how they are doing. LEND, as an example, just announced that they are increasing reserves as they see losses trending up. During the past few years, the losses were so low and many of the defaults are so easy to work out. Just give them a new loan to pay off the old, since equity is increasing so rapidly.