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To: Grommit who wrote (21834)	8/2/2005 2:40:37 PM
From: schzammm	Respond to of 78570

Grommit, on the speculative side Connacher Oil & Gas CLL.to is on a roll. CLL also has large acreage in Peru and Argentina, as well as interests in Canada. No debt so it must be a value stock<G> Connacher announces results of GLJ reserve and resources study - Great Divide oil sands property Tuesday August 2, 2:00 pm ET CALGARY, Aug. 2 /CNW/ - Connacher Oil and Gas Limited (CLL - TSX) is pleased to announce the results of a reserve and resources study of its 100 percent-owned Great Divide oil sands property, which is comprised of 101 sections of oil sands leases situated approximately 80 kilometres southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta. Over 538 million barrels of original oil-in-place probable and possible reserves and resources were assigned to Connacher's acreage, with initial and remaining recoverable reserves and resources of 311.2 million barrels. Pod One was assigned 69.6 million barrels of probable reserves with the eight percent pre-tax present value of future cash flow, calculated after royalties, operating costs and capital, estimated at $290.5 million ($3.12 per basic common share outstanding). The study was conducted at Connacher's request by Gilbert Laustsen Jung Associates Ltd. ("GLJ"), independent petroleum engineers of Calgary, Alberta. The results are contained in a report dated July 29, 2005 with an effective date of September 1, 2005, and contemplate Connacher proceeding with the filing of an application to develop Pod One at Great Divide with the relevant Alberta regulators, as expected, within the next several days. The study was conducted in accordance with the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook and with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101"). The report was accepted by Connacher's Board of Directors earlier today, on the recommendation of its Reserves Subcommittee and its Audit Committee. The report utilizes GLJ's July, 2005 full-year escalated pricing for the quality of crude oil to be produced at Great Divide, as follows: YEAR PRICE ($/bbl) ---- -------------- 2007 30.37 2008 30.37 2009 30.62 2010 28.37 2011 26.62 2012 26.62 2013 27.25 +2% thereafter Reserves were only assigned to Pod One, in the proved and probable ("2P") and proved, probable and possible ("3P") categories, although no proved reserves were assigned pending startup of production, forecast by GLJ to occur in 2007. Economic forecasts were generated for 2P and 3P reserves. The study assumed 45 SAGD well pairs for the 2P case and 63 wells for the 3P case, with cumulative steam-oil ratios ("SOR") of 2.6 in both cases, but declining to 2.3 during peak production periods. A summary of the 2P and 3P reserves assigned for Pod One is as follows: PROVED PLUS PROBABLE PROVED PLUS PROBABLE PLUS UNDEVELOPED POSSIBLE UNDEVELOPED (2P) (3P) (mmstb) (mmstb) RESERVES -------- Original Oil-in-Place 128.9 178.6 Remaining Recoverable 69.6 108.3 Connacher's 2P reserves at Pod One were forecast to generate $2.1 billion of future working interest revenue ($1.9 billion after royalties). The future undiscounted cash flow after deducting $735 million of forecast operating expenses, $4.7 million of abandonment and restoration charges and $310 million of net capital over the 25.3 year life of the project (11.9 years half-life) was estimated to be $821.4 million with an eight percent pre-tax present value of $290.5 million ($3.12 per basic common share) and a ten percent pre-tax present value of $226.3 million ($2.43 per basic common share). Connacher presently has 93 million common shares outstanding (100.3 million fully- diluted). Connacher's 3P reserves at Pod One were forecast by GLJ to generate $3.7 billion of future working interest revenue ($3.2 billion after royalties). After deducting future estimated operating costs of $1.3 billion, abandonment and restoration costs of 7.1 million and the estimated net capital investment over the 36.3 year forecast life of the project (17.2 years half-life) of $468 million, the project is forecast to generate future undiscounted cash flow of $1.49 billion with an eight percent pre-tax present value of $384.4 million ($4.13 per common share) and a ten percent pre-tax present value of $287.4 million ($3.09 per common share). The cutoffs used by GLJ for probable reserves were 15 metres of net pay for 2P reserves and 10 metres of net pay for 3P reserves. The report also provided calculations of "Best Estimate Resources (greater than 15 m Pay) which included probable reserves at Pod One and "Low Certainty Resources (greater than 10m Pay)" which included probable and possible reserves at Pod One, as well as recognizing the presence of four other pods on Connacher's lands. These additional four pods have insufficient drilling density, seismic mapping or project definition to be categorized as reserves at this time. Additional drilling and seismic activity could result in upgrading these to reserve status over time. In the interim, contingent resources were assigned based on best estimate mapping of these additional pods and the application of best estimate and low certainty recovery factors, as follows: BEST ESTIMATE RESOURCES (greater than 15m PAY) ---------------------------------------------- ORIGINAL INITIAL OIL-IN-PLACE RESERVES RESERVES (mmstb) (mmstb) POD 1 (2P reserves) 128.9 69.6 POD 2, POD 2 South 53.8 21.8 POD 3, POD 4 79.5 36.1 ---- ---- TOTAL 262.4 127.5 LOW CERTAINTY RESERVES (greater than 10m PAY) --------------------------------------------- POD 1 (3P reserves) 178.6 108.3 POD 2, POD 2 South 82.3 45.0 POD 3, POD 4 116.8 66.0 ----- ---- TOTAL 377.7 219.3 The GLJ report also concluded that along the channel trend, there was "a likelihood that additional pods will be discovered with additional drilling." Two additional undiscovered pods were assigned 160.6 million barrels of oil-in- place in the prospective resource category, with initial recoverable prospective resources of 91.6 million barrels. In total, then, GLJ assigned 538 million barrels of probable and possible oil-in-place reserves and resources to Connacher's existing land base, at its present stage of development. Initial and remaining recoverable reserves and resources aggregated 311.2 million barrels of bitumen. All reserve and resource estimates were done on a volumetric basis.

To: Grommit who wrote (21834)	8/2/2005 2:49:25 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78570

Grommit. I have considered your post and my reply to it many times. I still say, an abrupt move within a portfolio like that is very, very risky. However, I'm not so sure that what I have been doing is less risky - maybe it's even more risky. That is, instead of making large purchases at one time (your May buys for instance), I have been gradually averaging up on my positions in these stocks, and now they too for me account for a substantial part of my portfolios - not 60% though! The risk as I see it, is that if there is a sell off in these stocks (oil/gas sands, integrateds, e&ps, etc), then - whereas you have a substantial profit cushion built up since May purchases) - my purchases are spread over time. So any gains for me can quickly become losses as the latter purchases at higher prices move easily and quickly into the loss column, offsetting gains from the earlier buys. Anyway, I continue adding. Fwiw, here are SMALL buys I've made today in the oil/gas arena: finance.yahoo.com And there were these sells: DTV. Trim and re-allocate funds to oil sector. Losing patience with company/stock - boredom. My problem. FRO. Trimming a little of relatively large (for me) position. Oil tanker sector stocks doing poorly. Other oil related businesses are seeing stocks rise. Re-allocate funds. DCRKF. Closed position on buyout offer. finance.yahoo.com

To: Grommit who wrote (21834)	8/2/2005 7:50:59 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78570

re: travel related companies: Have had some difficulty in resolving conflicting aspects of some of these businesses. Grommit, others who have been long-time followers of car rental companies: I closed my position in DTG. I see Dollar Thrifty as the low price company among the major players, and one of the few independently, publicly-held companies in the sector. I see the travel industry as booming still. Therefore, it came as a surprise to me that DTG recently announced a difficult pricing environment and lowered expectations. I don't understand how this could be- given my assumptions. The stock dropped on the company's report, and at current price, it's not a value - especially if earnings might be impaired. I sold on the announcement and now have completely exited my position. I sold ASR recently too. This originally was a Dale Baker pick in '03. ASR operates and administers nine airports in southeast Mexico. It's primarily controlled by Danish partner Copenhagen Airports with a Mexican partner. I sold because I read hurricane Emily damage reports coming from Cancun. I believed that tourism would be greatly and adversely affect from the damage. But that doesn't seem to be so - hotels and airport, etc. are operating, and ASR stock still remains near its 12-month highs. I've re-entered the stock today with a small purchase. While the buy now is not the bargain it was when Dale Baker mentioned it, it still offers okay value and decent growth potential - imo. Although the psr is high, the profit margins from those sales are high too. The stock still sells below stated book value. The company is a toll booth: It extracts a small fee from each passenger who passes through its airports. And as per my assumption, tourism is booming. Furthermore, I now read that several (maybe four) low-cost airlines may receive gov't approval to enter the Mexican market which heretofore (I like that word -g) has been characterized by "monopolized, high-cost air travel". Opening the market to additional passengers/tourists has got to benefit ASR - I will bet. I've also taken on a few shares of recent IPO, Macquarie Infrastructure Trust (MIC). Too new and perhaps too diverse for a real value investment, but I'll take a few shares assuming I'm holding a conservative investment that provides services at airline terminals, and that it might have a good dividend yield. (Div. yield shown by Yahoo is based only on one quarter's dividend.) finance.yahoo.com

To: Grommit who wrote (21834)	2/6/2006 3:11:10 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78570

A wonderful, terrific, ballsy call. Nicely done, Grommit. OIL SANDS. Well on May 26 I moved most of my money into oil sands stocks. If you check the original post to this reply, I mentioned 40%, but it was almost 60%... I am not posting for congrats. I am posting because the best time to buy these companies was a few years ago, and the second best time is now. Their EPS estimates are still based on $45 oil. A 1 year summary for each of Grommit's positions at that time: finance.yahoo.com I've posted elsewhere my thoughts on Canada and its oil sands. I just wanted to salute you for your early call.