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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (34804)	8/3/2005 2:14:44 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I think a minimum decline of 50% as an expectation in all areas is nuts. You might have a 50% average, but it would be weighted heavily to the areas which have experienced irrational appreciation. My expectation is 10% in this area, 25% might be possible if interest rates hit double digits. Much more then that seems difficult to imagine. ie At 25% residential building would essentially stop as the profit margins would be zero. As far as cost to construct dropping in concert having built over the last 18 years, I have never seen it.