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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (37737)	8/4/2005 9:20:52 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 110194

Thanks, you know your stuff.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (37737)	8/5/2005 11:34:17 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

i do not see how Roche really makes a windfall off of Tamiflu, the way unhedged oil and gas producers can make windfalls. their production and purchase contracts are set at the beginning of the year. each year it is a gamble for them to decide how much to make. Tamiflu may become a hot item in the course of a flu year, but then maybe not. at the point that it becomes a hot item or becomes a dud, the die has already been cast. perhaps if the WHO decides Tamiflu is a panacea, then Roche licenses production to a hundred companies and becomes the MSFT of the pharmaceutical industry, but that sounds like a long shot. but maybe Roche the stock becomes a hot item.