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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (37805)	8/4/2005 4:33:50 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Please let me know if there are better ways to get advantage of the bursting of the bubble.> Puts (on most main indexes, SPY, QQQQ, IWM) right now are very cheap (although the VIX expanded today), your losses are limited to the amount of put, not open ended. Of course bet what you feel isn't financially damaging if you lose. Whether you make money or not will depend on timing of market downdrafts, which most here will tell you, present company included, is very difficult to know, even with the evidence we've been citing.

To: ggamer who wrote (37805)	8/4/2005 5:06:33 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

ggamer, Each person has to decide on their own. If you have a lot of equity you can sell and move to Oregon let's say and get a house for free so to speak. But you may miss friends or not have available work. If your friend's house is not selling is he sure he can service the debt on the new one for 20 years or what ever? Also remember this bubble may not burst. Prices may just level off or go back to a normal rate of increase. I have predicted 9 of the last 2 real estate recessions of the last 20 years. My track record is not good at predictions. For me I just want to be debt free. My home is very modest but I am happy with it. If we do not have a collapse or whatever then I can enjoy life more easily or work less or even just spend more foolishly. Each to their own. <g> Tom

To: ggamer who wrote (37805)	8/4/2005 7:28:03 PM
From: Oblomov	Respond to of 110194

The losses on shorting are only theoretically unlimited. If managed correctly, shorting isn't any more risky than going long. In practice, one buys OOM calls after the position starts to show a profit. Also, I think it is fruitless to short the speculative frenzy stocks. There are usually weaker sisters that make better shorts. I have mostly grown out of the psychological need to win with a trophy short (it has something to do with having a wife who is smarter than me, and who constantly reminds me of my foibles -g-), content instead to simply make a profit.