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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36964)	8/4/2005 11:08:33 PM
From: Schnullie	Respond to of 306849

I agree with both of your theses...softer job market than we suspect and anti-immigrant sentiment ramp up in soft job market, but I'm sure there are better job market indicators. Besides, I think the correlation became weaker after 9/11.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36964)	8/4/2005 11:11:28 PM
From: bentway	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

That's exactly right. Every immigrant wave into this country has been blamed for all sorts of ills when things go south. I guess it the Mexican's turn.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36964)	8/5/2005 10:13:55 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

But the participation ratio is very low (people aren't looking) After rising for four decades, as women moved into the workforce, from 59.3% the participation rate topped out around 67.1% in the 1997-2000 tech boom. The current participation rate is within 1% of it's yearly all time high, hardly a level that I'd characterise as "very low". The labor participation rate - the percentage of adults who either have jobs or are looking for work - increased by a tenth to 66.1%. marketwatch.com If you look at the age breakdowns you find that the participation rate dropped the most severely for 16-19 year olds, held relatively steady for 45-55 and rose significantly for over 55 year olds since the peaks in 2000.