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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Oblomov who wrote (66993)8/5/2005 7:21:06 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
I agree with your logic and incidentally would like to point out that the oil price is a global price, not a US price only.

Moral: we can't believe everything we read especially when we know that newspaper people are ill paid and largely unnumerate.



To: Oblomov who wrote (66993)8/5/2005 12:21:24 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Oblomov - I don't understand it well either, but it happens enough that I think there is a real mechanism at work.

Assume the end gasoline demand is constant and non-elastic.
Which tends to be close to true short term.

So that gasoline need will be met from another refinery, maybe in Europe, South America, or Asia.

The crude that was intended for the closed refinery or it's equivalent has to then be shipped to Europe. That takes time, and the crude in those ships is not on the market for the 2-3 weeks it takes the ship to travel.

From the point of view of a refinery in Europe which might be operating at 70% capacity, they have an immediate incentive to buy crude, even at a slightly higher price, so they can supply the gasoline demand.

That's the best reason I can think of.

If Elroy Jetson or Douglas Fant or someone else wants to talk about what really happens, that would be welcome.