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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (37843)	8/5/2005 11:05:49 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Why are you so sure 4.5% TNX means a credit meltdown?

To: Real Man who wrote (37843)	8/5/2005 11:13:37 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

RE:"That and leverage combination makes a meltdown from there very probable." What do you mean by meltdown?

To: Real Man who wrote (37843)	8/5/2005 11:38:32 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

distribution "tail", the event derivative markets are never prepared for> Think you are absolutely right, the problem will show up in the lower tranche MBS and ABS IMO. Still even with this volatility spike in rates, and a 4% hit in the Bully index, the HGX, and weakness in junk lending purveyors like NEW and LEND, somehow they are able to hose it down enough so that the VIX is actually down a couple ticks as we speak. The key may be the Yen and Euro dropping today, which keeps the borrowing portion of the hedge fund carrytrade (borrow in low interest currencies to support Crap) in the game. We need to see the Euro and Yen recover, and then the Boyz avenue of escape will be totally cut off.