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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (38022)	8/7/2005 11:14:00 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

If that happens US maintains its status as reserve currency for a long time allowing our fiscal irresponsibility to go even deeper and longer than anyone could imagine before we face the true consequences.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (38022)	8/7/2005 11:21:34 AM
From: futures speculator	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

the euro is going to fall apart by 2010. in five years, there will be no more euro-as-we-know-it. all the euro countries are going to take their ball and go home, beginning with the weakest links in a series of competitive devaluations. I wonder, what makes you think that Euro will fall apart? I mean, I live and work in EU and apart from some very crude propaganda that I've seen flying around during the last few months (which is understandable, as it's part of the psy-ops to prevent a massive flight from the dollar during the upcoming debasement) there's nothing that would make me think that the end of Euro is anywhere near. I know there are politicians who blame the Euro (like some right wing nuts in Italy), but it's mostly for "internal consumption". E.g. the "Northern League" in Italy, the ones calling for a return to the Lira, a few years earlier was calling for the Italian North to dump the lira and adopt the German Mark.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (38022)	8/7/2005 12:53:08 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

I'm not really discussing the relative merits of the Euro over the USD, except perhaps on a trading basis. I'm mentioning this in the context of the big low interest currency carry trades, that have been put on by the speculative funds to buy US junk debt. I'm real interested in seeing if that trade comes unglued.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (38022)	8/7/2005 2:12:59 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think that the Euro will fall apart. I don't think it makes sense to judge from the vote on the constitution what will happen to the Euro. I have no doubt that the most vocal people talking about leaving the Euro (i.e. Berlusconi) are privately deathly afraid of what it would mean. Do you think that Italy could issue 15 year bonds at 4% with the Lira? The impact to industry would be huge and Italy's industry is suffering already. Just look at how well Fiat is doing. I think it is highly unlikely that anybody will leave the Eurozone and it is more likely that more will join it as it will be increasingly difficult to compete unless you are part of the Zone. Here is a recent article that holds quite an opposite view to yours: Message 21579961