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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (38029)	8/7/2005 11:29:08 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

I think all those areas will need is tighter lending and monetary conditions that stops the overbuilding. Metro areas of Houston, Atlanta and Phoenix had the most housing starts in the nation for years now. Obviously it didn't stop Phoenix from becoming a bubble. Flip side is you can also look at places like Oklahoma City or El Paso with little new construction and yet limited appreciation. So I think a big part of it is the local mentality of the people. In overpriced coastal bubble markets they believe in RE. In other areas that have not performed well they do not believe in RE. Sort of like bullish and bearish sentiment in the stock market though a RE cycle is much longer and lasts a decade or more. That will change over time with a disproportionate share of new business and job growth going to less costly areas which will also attract more younger folks and some more of the cashing in their chips crowd from bubble markets.