Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (38045)	8/7/2005 1:25:42 PM
From: Crusader	Respond to of 110194

The Housing Bubble Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 8 August, 2005 Extracted from the Lasco newsletter We've heard so much about the housing bubble over the last year that I thought I might as well add my two cents. Is it or isn't it a bubble? If it is, at what stage is it? Is it really different this time? And a host of other related questions too numerous to mention in one article. In a short amount of space, and in terms most individuals can understand, I would like to deal with two concepts: Is this a bubble, and At what stage of the mania are we in if in fact we do have a mania? If we can determine the answer to these two questions, then we'll have useful information that can be applied to the bond, stock, dollar and commodities markets. After all, it appears to me that asset inflation is what allows U.S. consumers to continue their buying spree, and the main common asset that they all possess is their house... More in 321gold.com

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (38045)	8/7/2005 1:34:20 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Ramsey, Good info. Does a watched market ever fall off the edge? I remember the 9+ months of inventory in the '90s. It seemed like nothing was moving. My guess is the longer the listing periods, the less reliable the data (since agents pull houses and then put them back on the market). Its worth noting that months of inventory can increase for 2 reasons ... if transactions drop in half (your cancelled escrows) then we would be to 4 or 5 months overnight. Best Regards!

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (38045)	8/7/2005 6:33:10 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Of the twenty recent downtown San Diego actual closed sales, look at the eventual mark downs off the asking price: 7 were 8% or more, and 6 were 5% or more. sandiegodowntown.info In the six-eight weeks it takes to get through to closing, the one year constant treasury maturity (1CMT) has moved from 3.36% to 3.87%. Makes you wonder how many deals are falling from escrow based on interest rate and financing contingencies? Meanwhile as those managed to get through to actual closing, 195 of 430 listings saw price reductions in the last seven weeks: sdcondo.com