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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (38221)	8/9/2005 11:38:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

From Heinz... just to make that clear: i don't believe in the EMH, it is true that its basic tenets are continually contradicted by the way markets actually behave (no active trader can possibly believe in the EMH). also , i mainly posted that comment for provocative reasons (i wanted to see what replies it would get); secondly, yes, they're reading too much into it. it is merely stating the obvious - namely that the current market price expresses the best judgment of all market participants at this particular point in time. it was meant as a counter to statements of the type of 'but gold (for instance) is REALLY worth $700, not $435' (i.e., even though one could make an argument that it SHOULD trade at that price, the market has decided on a different price - and what is, is). the current price for the most part correctly factors in what is CURRENTLY known and expected. where the savvy buyer's or seller's edge comes in is in correctly extrapolating how the information and perceptions influencing the price will EVOLVE in the future. this was actually the context of my comment - a laundry list of items was presented as to why the price of gold should be going up. but it was a list of things everybody knows about at this very moment. the trick is to forecast how these fundamentals will change in the future, and in what way this will shape market perceptions and thus future prices. ============================================================= Thus your hypothesis (as suspected) was wrong. Mish