Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (38246)	8/9/2005 5:20:58 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 110194

I think the giveback here will be 10-25% here and in the bubble areas 40-60% with condos most assuredly at the top end of the range. In general I expect a long slow decline intereupted by a few sharp declines and a couple of false small rises. At the bottom there will be no talk of buying investment properties or second homes. Reasonable assumptions except I think the rust versus bust scenario is up in the air because, unlike the puncturing of NASDAQ in 2000, the RE b[r]ust will have collateral effects in a variegated number of spots, causing immediate pain which will accelerate the rusting.

To: mishedlo who wrote (38246)	8/9/2005 5:57:30 PM
From: anachronist	Respond to of 110194

What of non bubble areas? Don't know, but I'd imagine it depends on how badly their local economies are shaken by the coming slowdown. My estimate for California is driven by the exotic loans, low-affordability, unsustainable construction industry growth, and general speculative manina that exists here. The only risk you run is if credit dries up completely, or the local economy collapses (a la Flint, MI). At the bottom there will be no talk of buying investment properties or second homes I couldn't agree more.