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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (37435)	8/9/2005 9:54:03 PM
From: bentway	Respond to of 306849

I think you and I see things about the same. I just see that these flaky "mortgage products" are available everywhere. A first time homebuyer is probably just looking at what the monthly nut will be. I know that's what I did. For many of these people, the flaky mortgages with low initial payments may be very attractive, and they're on the menu, even if they could get a conventional mortgage. Some of these people will default if the economy turns down, and cause excess inventory even in non-bubbly areas, which I think will further depress prices nationally. Many more of them will hang in, and pay larger percentages of their incomes to be in "the ownership society", while seeing no appreciation, or even depreciation. Not happy thoughts!

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (37435)	8/9/2005 10:39:04 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I've thought serious overvaluations include at least 50% of the population and 75% of total housing value nationwide. Top states for foreclosures like Ohio, Colorado, Texas and Georgia are not usually mentioned as bubble areas. Two of the top three markets for new housing permits are Atlanta and Houston where supply is growing faster than population or jobs. If we do have a simultaneous across the board period of high foreclosures there will be a serious recession with 4.5M RE related jobs lost according to Dean Baker.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (37435)	8/10/2005 3:39:48 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Totally agree with you. I think people are going to be surprised at how hard this area gets hit, even though there was never the kind of silliness that has gone on in the bubble areas. I am a state representative for a breed specific national dog rescue group. These dogs are very expensive and trendy. They cost 2K and up. We used to get maybe 10 a year into rescue but today, we have over 60 in rescue and many of them are turned over because of economic distress. That never happened 2-3 years ago. I see things like that as a leading indicator of much more to come.