Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (37592)	8/11/2005 1:14:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

We are not Japan. Maybe one day you'll address our growing population and a ton of available land for development that allows our GDP to continue growing. I have commented at least a dozen times on my blogs and on SI and on the FOOL and who knows where else. The Biggest Plus for the US in the deflation fight is immigration/population growth. How many more times do you want me to say it? Yes we have immigration and yes we have land in which to expand. But does having that ensure that our GDP will grow? For the sake of argument I will agree with that silly notion. Let's say it HAS to happen. Now what timeframe does it HAVE to happen in? Right now? 5 years from now? 10? When? Why cant we have deflation for 8 years before what "has" to happen starts happening again. Furthermore and more to the point, even IF GDP had to go up even RIGHT NOW and forever until eternity based on growing population, does that mean the US can not have deflation while it was happenining? Hmmm a quick check of history proves that not only does rising propulation NOT guarantee a rising GDP in the short term it does not prevent deflation in the short term either. Why was that? Reckless expansion of credit is why. It was more important then and it will be more important now! Thus it seems safe (to me) to discared silly assumptions about rising GDP and no deflation based solely on population growth. Debt, lack of savings, and a plunging housing market, the latter of which will have devasting affects on jobs and wages, will more than counterbalance any population growth for quite some time IMO. So we will have all of that land for expansion and it will sit there doing nothing until the next housing boom..... When? Whenever that is we will be heading out of K-Winter, malinvestmensts purged and ready for sustainable growth. That might be 10 years from now or longer, who knows. I have said all of that in various ways many times before but there it is again. Mish