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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (37595)	8/11/2005 12:58:35 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 306849

I am not smart enough to give you the devil in the details Mish, but I am a great believer in corruption, and if it takes every dirty trick in the book that niether you or I can think of for Elephant to keep the prices from going from 1.4mil to 700K in a very short time, I know he will do it - he will hire teams of PHD think tanks to do it for him if he cannot do it. I know from reading guys like Mr. Perkins about some of our very dirty dealings in the world - even assassinations - that american politicos like newt gingrich and such are very very courrupted people who are very very dirty and tricky. Somehow inflation gets into that, and while you and I know that means we will be trading in our steak dinners for dog food - to the voters who only think in numbers as they are trained - their 1.4 mil house not falling in half will placate enough perhaps - even if they are trading in thier chicken sandwiches for crackers and salt. My dumb redneck friends can hold thier head up if all they have to do is stop eating steak and instead go back to fishing in the gutters for tadpoles, but if they have to tell thier neighbor they voted in a guy that caused thier 1.4 mil to go to 700K in a short time, they will be so shamed and thier anger will be great. Benson has time and again questioned are we going to sack the dollar and kill it at the holy altar. Elephants indeed have a lot of green paper and you make an excellent point and I ponder over that very issue a lot - going forward - what is going to be more important to the elephant - political power or green paper he has accumulated - which one is easier to control the future of at this point? Green papers future seems to be more a function of japan and china than newt gingrich - so if I were him - I would slaughter the dollar at the sacrificial altar and hold my political power. You make a lot of great points - what happened politically in Japan after they sold out thier citizens - what happened to the Yen - I am not asking this rhetorically - I really don't know enough about japans currency and political change the past 20 years to know - they didn't stop the housing crash - how did this affect the political offices and currency - perhaps we can learn from that. I put myself in the elephants shoes - would I rather have my nice office in washington with monica intern, or lots of green paper and to me, I would rather have the office and power and monica. In the past, say US depression - did the current in office NOT SEE what was coming - that they were about to lose decades of political control - it seems they chose the paper I guess - why would they make this choice - why was US paper more important to them than political power?

To: mishedlo who wrote (37595)	8/12/2005 12:13:26 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I have said yours and puplavas quick inflation or deflation scenario do not seem to hold weight to me - the powers that be in this country are going to do what it takes to RETAIN power - and to me that seems a SLOW move in either direction - not a fast one that causes severe political backlash. What happened in Japan took how long? You throw a frog into boiling water he jumps out - but turn the heat up slowly no? Greenspan has said we can't know we are like wile e coyote who has just stepped off the cliff until we start to fall - but that adjustment will be controlled - yours and puplavas scenarios call for political destruction of the party in power - and they will not go willingy. I don't see brittney JR wannabe waking up tomorrow, saying green paper is junk, and demanding GOLD for her time to flip burgers. I don't see the cuban illegal cutting my yard spitting on the benjamin I give him and demanding a golden panda. Mauldin says MUDDLE through for the next decade. Here by Mauldin Those Clever Chinese July 22, 2005 By John Mauldin ....In the meantime, and until time's fullness, things will go on as they are because the governments of Asia, by and large, cannot afford to do anything else. What government is going to deliberately slow down growth in their country when it would mean so much personal short term loss? By personal loss, I am not referring to the citizens of the respective countries, though there would certainly be that. I am referring to the loss of the positions held by the politicians. Politicians hate losing power. It is a universal truth that they will avoid causing problems for which they can be blamed, if they can help it. You see, all the politicians all over the world are in UNISON in keeping things SLOW - they are going to make sure the readjusment is SLOW and you have not given me any good evidence why they can't continue to make things SLOW - this thread has been calling for a crash for 5 years - WRONG - Dean Baker called for a housing Bubble in 2000 - yet it has not BUSTED - I do not know what bush and putin and jintao talk about behind closed doors, but I am sure each one of them keeping CONTROL is priority 1 - quick moves up or down will shake the reigns of power out of thier hand and they won't let go willingly. Congressmen were being told by voters you are gonna be out of office if you don't save our jobs so they rattle the swords a little bit at thier chinese friends to make voters happy while behind closed doors everyone drink some saki and laugh at thier respective sheeple. Robert Schiller has called an internet bubble since 1996 econ.yale.edu His Valuation Ratio paper - econ.yale.edu - the one I think inspired Greenspans irrational exhuberance - would have kept people out of the market for what almost 10 years now as shiller has been - we all would have missed great gains no? Both yours and puplavas scenarios call for citizens globally becoming very disgusted with the status quo, and for career politicians globally really fugging up in bad ways, and then for it all imploding or exploding in chaotic catastrophe - I counter that you are both in error because citizens are followers usually - not leaders - politicians are good at covering each others backs - even across national borders - and there is so much power working against extremes at either end - that if wile e coyote does go over the cliff - he will have a parachute that lets him drift gently down to the bottom. If there is supply glut nationally and globally, the political powers that be will find some way to keep the aggregate pacified. Now Mr. Grandie said today that the chinese stopped buying the mortgage backed stuff 6 months ago - but there was an office set up in the caymans to keep the party going - he thinks it is pimco and a few foreign nations - so they are going to fight it as long as they can and SLOW things down.