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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chaka who wrote (379)	8/11/2005 2:33:02 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50084

Chaka ...re: Oil Demand.... Demand numbers have been revised more times than the chalkboard menu at the local diner...and lately those revisions have been downward. But, going right to the mathematical core of the entire Peak Oil and coming oil-crisis thesis: It is simply mathematically impossible to maintain, let alone to keep building Oil Inventories - especially simultaneous to the refilling of the US SPR ...and also while conducting a WAR - if there was truly a significant supply:demand imbalance ?!?!?! China openly acknowledges that the pace of it's Oil Demand is not going to be maintained...but, it's not "maintenace" that is the bet the Oil Bulls are making - it's a ramp in demand AND a simultaneous collapse in Supply. I don't see it happening... not at $65 Oil. This 5 year plan of the buildout of China's Energy Infrastructure ends in 2008. China has already publically acknowledged that they must slow their growth and that they can not maintain it. Whether China can weather the multiplicity of Economic, Political and Cultrual stress related challenges without a significant correction in it's Economy and thus Oil Demand, let alone a Japan-esque deflationary correction... waits to be seen. I still think this ramp in Oil is going to collapse China... and it won't be a surprise to a few US Think Tanks connected to the Pentagon & the NSA. Now how ironic will it be that the Communist Chinese author a Military Strategy White Paper ("Unrestricted Warfare") on using commodities and financial markets as the preferred method of modern Warfare...and have it used against them to collapse the last great Communist Threat to the USA ? ...Soviet Union Deja Vu all over again ! - whodathunkit ? ...and we thought our "Tax Dollars" were being wasted via all that Think-Tankology (vbg). While Matt Simmons ratchets up the Cassandra level - predicting a 10-15 fold increase in Oil Prices and the basic Economic Collapse of the Modern World..Oil Inventories globally are reaching record levels ? As Inventories Rise... Simmon's Calls for now a 10-15 fold Spike in Prices !?!?!? ...sounds a little irrational to me. Tankers are being turned away - the Saudi's have cut back on recent outgoing tanker loads - because there are simply no customers for any more Oil. The Oilpatch swings cyclically from periods of under-investment to over-investment. US and Global Economic Cycles - ebb and flow. An important question Oil Bulls need to be asking -is where are we at in both the Investment and Economic Cycles ? Personally, in broad terms - I would prefer to buy when Energy Investment is collapsing, not ramping. I would also prefer to buy at the bottoms of Economic cycles - not at the tops. ...the market seems to disagree - so I patiently wait. Gold is giving yet another profitable trade.... there is always a place to find opportunity. I would hope that Oilbulls would see this as an opportunity to cash in profits. Oil does not rise to record price levels within a vacuum. Nuclear, Pebble Bed Reactors, Coal, Ethanol, LNG, Oil/Tar Sands, Hybrid Electric Auto's, Wind, Solar, Water...there is NO SHORTAGE OF ENERGY. Toyota, Nissan, Honda and Hyundai...can and will supply the market with Hybrid Electric Vehicles... as GM & Ford collapse under the weight of their SUV dependancy... one door opens as another closes... We shall see... Interesting times... and once again; my main thought: $65, let alone $100 Oil will not occur within an Economic vacuum... When one sector becomes over-known, over-owned and enters a speculative blow off top...it sucks money and investment out of another. Find them... they're out there... I simply do NOT understand either Oil, or Gold Bulls who want to deride anyone selling and taking profits in this environment.... RING THY REGISTER ~ MY BRETHERN ! You really only have something to celebrate when you SELL....and you must SELL to make Profit - Profit. It must be a semantic thing...that Permabulls attach such a negative to "selling" - even though you must SELL to make Profits - PROFIT ? Maybe we ought to call it "reverse buying" ? ... that'll work: I'm REVERSE BUYING ! Slider PS: CNBC's Ron Insana just mentioned the disconnect in the Futures Markets... 10 year highs in Jet Fuel Inventory...but, record price ramp ? An awfull lot of money is being bet on supply falling off the cliff in Q4 and continuing global demand ramp....and then there's the potential for a SPR release into the market... Risk vs. Reward... it's not a static relationship.