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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (67280)	8/12/2005 12:13:14 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

When was that show? Diversification makes sense whether investing or trading. Too much diversification means you can't pay attention to all those things, so some focus is good. In the last version of the portfolio I posted online, short GOOG was equal to -2.26% of the portfolio net worth. And you can see that Jay too is playing very small (relative to portfolio size) with these kind of shorts. And as I've explained my idea is to outsource managing the main amount of money i.e. mutual funds and closed end funds. Recently I've been switching them to a much more conservative stance. Will be a big long-term CGT hit (another reason for not just trading is get the lower rate). But I figure either we are going into a longish bear market (low probability) or a relatively steep dip and then another bull leg that lasts at least a year (higher probability) so when I swing back in again I will be back into the long-term rate. I do a lot of analysis - stuff like looking at the correlations and alphas between these mutual funds to decide which I need as well as TA. I found for example that a fund called "diversified fund" has a daily RoR correlation of 0.98 with a fund called "high growth" LOL. One of those is clearly redundant and there is something wrong there. And I can check the correlation of funds one might add with current performance of the portfolio. Trying to learn from my mistakes. I posted a chart that showed my alpha was increasing - we discussed this - went from negative to strongly positive over the years, mean for the whole period a little bit above zero now.