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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21903)	8/13/2005 1:43:34 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78670

re OIl stocks. I don't know where the oil price is going either. The once thing is sure - oil will go up and stay there until demand wanes. This will more likely happen in developing countries. Why? Increasing energy prices don't matter much for many in the US. I personally pay nor 30$/week in gas instead of 20$ three years ago. This is no big deal, but for somebody who has 1/5 or less of my disposable income, spending the same $ amount for gas might hurt and should crimp consumption. Those type of supply/demand changes always happen at the margin. I suspect that the volatile economy in developing countries will hurt much more from high energy prices then the US/Europe/Japan. But we will see - one way or the other, this will be resolved. Interesting enough, the low LT interest rates in the bond market seem to suggest that a recession is more likely than inflation. We shall see.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21903)	8/15/2005 12:32:08 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78670

>>"Just don't be surprised if we get a dip to ~1K in S&P and similar dips in other indices." >I won't be surprised, but I will be crying. Unfortunately, there is no way to avoid this and in the same time participate in the upside. That's why I follow the "long term hold" philosophy together with raising some cash and some oil investments. Re: Oil stocks. Yeah, I don't understand them at all, that's why I buy IGE. I missed PTR when Buffett bought it and when I looked at it, it was already much more expensive. :( Jurgis the Holder