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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chainik who wrote (399)	8/16/2005 5:35:12 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50650

chainik - re: Palladium plays......... I've only established initial partial positons in PAL & SWC and after being hounded for nearly 6 months by a good friend who's a legitimate "Ax" in the Futures Market - and I did succumb to buying some physical over the last couple months. - it's a very small position (for now). I still have some 90% Silver Bags and a little physical Gold - all told, probably equal to 2 1/2% of my "trading" account (just enough to get me into Northern Canada when Armagedeon hits(vbg). I do think that Palladium could very easily get a significant Speculative Bid under it from Hedge Funds...as the spread to Platinum widens and Copper and other Metals continue their run. I don't plan on adding anything more here, but I'll stay open to adding to positions on a strong technical breakout in the metal....or, building a bigger LT position on any retest of prior lows and/or break to lower lows - which would really make it a contrarian play... Adding to some SubPrime shorts presently...and catching up on some taped Conference Calls & 10 Q's... it's not to my advantage to throw the "small cap plays" out there untill I'm done (vbg).... although in the larger caps like NFI with now 30%+ of the entire Float Shorted... the Death Watch List isn't hard to find ~ One Conference Call I was listening to brought back some mid-late 1990's Deja Vu...when a CEO was asked about some of the specific newer, ultra aggresive Loan Programs such as Interest Only ARM's, HIGH LTV Stated Income & Non Owner Occupied Loans, Piggybacks/0 down Purchases etc... and responded with: "We didn't like that(specific loan)program and were a year late in adopting it...but, we had to - to retain market share on the Street" ....it doesn't matter if it's reckless, irresponsible, unprofitable and had off the chart risk modeling that led to them not initially adopting the program... if a competitor is hitting the street hard & heavy with it and is getting "business"....that's all that matters. - it's insane. Then when asked about the Industry Wide Appraisal/Valuation Problem in Subprime... the same CEO said quote:unquote: "We think the collateral in our loans is representative of Industry Standards...and good credit - pays. We focus on Credit vs. Collateral...." That "good credit" that he was referring to - was 580-620 FICO scores !?!?!?! - with inflated appraisals that make these all 100%+ LTV loans ! He basically acknowledged in a Public Conference Call - that Collateral Quality & Legitimate Appraisals and accurate LTV's - we're non-existant and that all the Industry is now doing is making FICO driven loans secured by a Mortgage.... on anything, at any LTV. Then when asked about the possibility of adopting a Mortgage REIT Business Model - the CEO said they had numerous Investment Bankers making presentations to them....and they were looking at it... That's the root of the entire problem with Subprime - right there.... - Investment Bankers taking "minor league minds" and dazzling them with "Major League" Bull$h!^. - CEO's managing their businesses based on retaining market share and growth - regardless of how reckless, or ultimately unprofitable those decisions may be... because these businesses are not being managed for the longterm benefit of shareholders - it's all about inflated Salaries, Stock Options and burying the numbers in a maze of creative accounting and pushing growth AT ANY COST - period. Cityscape-GreenTree/Conseco Deja Vu all over again... SubPrime Death Watch is BAAAACK ~ Tic' Toc`