Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (67468)	8/14/2005 6:22:31 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

OK. From what I read of Simmons comments, when a field like Ghawar is pushed so hard for so long (heavy water cuts) that when it enters decline it is often precipitous. Other wells using heavy water cuts in the region experienced severe declines. Ghawar produces about 5% of daily global oil demand, the result would be catastrophic. energybulletin.net Page 23 shows a field in Oman which used water cut extensively and entered decline dropping production from 250,000bpd to 90,000 bod 97-01, basically 35% in 4 years. Ghawar produces 4mbpd 35% in 4yrs would be 1.4mbpd, a drop of 2.6mbpd, or 625,000bpd per year decline. Considering Q4 05 supply shortfalls of 800,000bpd are being predicted Ghawar's decline could exacerbate the problem.