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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill on the Hill who wrote (1716)	8/15/2005 1:38:38 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24213

Peak oil jobs #4: the camping site owner by Roland Watson It must take a peculiar state of mind to see Peak Oil and its ramifications in everything you see and do. It must be the first signs of nail chewing paranoia or calm presience. So it was that one seemingly unconnected event brought some thoughts to mind. I have just returned from a camping holiday in some far flung corner of the country surrounded by rambling hills, lowing cows and bounding rabbits (in various stages of myxomatosis as it turned out). I had reached my destination by car having driven for just over an hour fully loaded with family and various camping utilities ranging from the tent down to the humble but essential can opener. Having arrived at the camping site, the most difficult task of unpacking and erecting the tent began in earnest and was completed in an hour or two. We could now sit back and enjoy the holiday. Once I settled into a reflective state of mind, I thought backwards and then forwards into time. I recalled how my uncle used to go on annual camping trips to France for years with his family. I also recalled that he had a successful job as a regional manager in a roofing company. I wondered why he didn't enjoy the fruits of his labour and go somewhere more exotic with his family? Furthermore, I remembered my wife's recollections about how her family went on simple holidays along the Scottish coastline to the same humble caravan for two weeks a year. This was also an annual event for as long as she could remember. Her father was also a successful high level manager at an engineering firm. Both these men were on good salaries with small families, why did they opt for low cost holidays when something more luxurious seemed within their grasp? The answer became apparent when I calculated the years both families would have been heading for these low profile destinations - it was the late 1970s. Inflation was in the double digits and interest rates were being set to match these money eroding forces. Energy costs had tripled only a few years before and were due another heart stopping run up to $40 with the Iranian revolution. Mortgage costs were going up and up while striking workers were demanding pay rises of 20%, 30% and even 40% to match the raging inflation that can only come with fiat money. I could only assume two things of my elder relations. The high cost of living was forcing speding cuts or the need to save against an uncertain future was forcing spending cuts. Either way, disposable income became essential income. When Peak Oil begins to grind the economy down slowly and remorselessly, be prepared for a rerun of the 1970s - and that would just be the beginning. As people tighten their belts, holidays will take on a very economical aspect. Gone will be the cheap flights to distant sun kissed beaches and remote palm tree'd villas. In will come the tent and the caravan as they experience a renaissance. Our tent vacation was cheap by any standard - no hotel tariffs and no restaurant meals. In their place came the pitch fee and a gas cooker to prepare our own meals. Is this the shape of things to come? One simple rule of thumb regarding Peak Oil is to view it as a film of society running backwards. The cheap air flights all reverse forever into their hangars and the large hotel complexes of inexpensive Mediterranean resorts are unbuilt to the ground. Meantime, the local resorts within a few hundred miles or so become more and more teeming with activity and the tents and caravans (or mobile homes) begin to proliferate on empty fields. Some things will change within these genres. My father-in-law didn't haul a caravan to his destination, he rented one on site. When fuel costs rise painfully, that wisdom will become more apparent. The vacation villa will not disappear, it will just simply be nearer. However, they will not be owned as a second property or a timeshare for the impending end of the real estate bubble will bring that form of holiday investment to a long term ending. And what of the camping site owner mentioned at the top? He may be a farmer with some spare land to use (apart from that now allocated for increased local produce) or a former property developer who sees the future in vacation homes rather than residential homes. If well timed and well located, these pieces of land could be guaranteed generators of income. When the number of vehicles on the road begins to decline and land prices are also declining, then would be the time to move into that line of business. Peak Oil is obviously a big problem, but as the motivational speaker may say, it can be turned into an opportunity for those with the foresight and dynamism to see its ramifications. After World War II, when blitzed London was being cleaned up, two men began buying up derelict land about the city. Their sanity was questioned when they said it would be used for car parking but out of the gloom of a bankrupt Britain, they were prove right as their NCP car parking business went on to become the leading British car parking provider. Ominously, this company that symbolises cheap oil has just been sold for nearly a billion dollars. When the exact opposite begins to happen, look upon those plunging land valuations as your NCP opportunity! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Published on 15 Aug 2005 by New Era Investor. Archived on 15 Aug 2005. energybulletin.net

To: Bill on the Hill who wrote (1716)	8/15/2005 9:48:50 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24213

'Peak oil' issue piques interest Cathy Proctor Denver Business Journal With the price of oil and gasoline spiraling higher, top energy analysts wonder about two things: Where will it end? Are the world's supplies reaching what experts call "peak oil," the point where supplies steadily decline and prices rise even more sharply higher? Some experts say the world's oil production peak could be five to 15 years away. Others scoff, noting it's been predicted for decades. And besides, skeptics say, new technologies will bring more oil to the market. The city of Denver will wade into the debate when it hosts a two-day seminar Nov. 10-11 on "peak oil" and what it may mean to Denver and the nation's economy. The U.S. arm of the International Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (www.aspo-usa.com) will co-host the event. Mayor John Hickenlooper, the state's most famous former petroleum geologist, said he heard Tom Petrie, chairman and CEO of Denver oil and gas investment firm Petrie Parkman & Company Inc., give a presentation on the topic about a year ago. "It was so compelling that I thought more people should be aware of this going on," Hickenlooper said. "That this is happening, has or is about to happen. "I don't think, 'the sky is falling, the sky is falling.' But the sooner we begin to examine what the alternatives could be, as the price of oil increases, the better off we'll be and the less trauma and less economic hardship we'll endure. Like any business, you want to plan for these things." Petrie has studied the world's oil economy for years. The firm has advised Saudi Arabia about its natural gas resources, the state of Alaska on gas-pipeline options and the U.S. Department of Energy on the sale of an oilfield. Petrie has advised on more than $130 billion worth of energy-related mergers and acquisitions. In early August, during a presentation at the Colorado Oil and Gas Association's annual conference, Petrie told a crowd of oil and gas executives he believes "peak oil" could hit in the next decade. "We're a lot nearer to peak oil than some people like to acknowledge," he said. Oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange neared $65 per barrel Aug. 10, up 40 Prices at the pump were at record levels both in Colorado and across the nation on Aug. 10. AAA reported the national average at a record $2.376 per gallon for regular unleaded while Colorado's average was $2.32 per gallon, a 22 percent jump from a year ago. But some believe the oil and gas industry will respond to higher prices with new technology to reach new resources. "I am extremely skeptical that we're looking at a peak oil perspective. We have tar sands, oil shale, advances in deep drilling. There's a lot out there," said Edward Murphy, group director for refining and marketing at the American Petroleum Institute in Washington, D.C., whose 400 members include the world's major oil companies. "It's hard to make a convincing case that we're reaching peak oil production. It's really a technology issue. The question is how quickly is technology going to advance and will it advance as quickly as demand." But even if new technology increases oil supplies -- albeit at higher prices -- the effect on the nation's and world's economies will be broad. "When you look at how widespread and critical our reliance on oil is, the bigger the issue is. Everybody has a dog in this fight," Hickenlooper said. bizjournals.com