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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: regli who wrote (35413)8/15/2005 11:55:06 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Thoughts on the new bankruptcy law
2theadvocate.com

Bankruptcy gets harder
Tougher guidelines could chase lawyers off

Because it could become harder for people to declare bankruptcy, Johnson is also concerned that repossessions and foreclosures will become more common.

"It's not good for the economy. There will be a lot of repossessed cars on the market and the housing market could be flooded with foreclosures," she said.

..."And all through that delay, there will still be the harassment and the calls. It's really going to be a nasty, rude awakening for people who wait until the last minute," he said.

###
kuam.com
People denied a Chapter 7 bankruptcy either have to file for Chapter 13 bankruptcy and come up with a three-to-five year repayment plan or keep slipping further behind on their debts. The new law also places limits on "automatic stay", referring to rules that immediately halt almost all collection actions and lawsuits against someone who files for bankruptcy. But out with the old and in with the new law that now places limits on the automatic stay.

Among other things, the automatic stay no longer stops or postpones: evictions, actions to withhold, suspend, or restrict a driver's license, a professional or occupational license; lawsuits to establish paternity, child custody, or child support, divorce proceedings, or lawsuits related to domestic violence.



To: regli who wrote (35413)8/16/2005 12:03:28 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
New Bankruptcy Law Will Increase Opportunities for Investors and Homeowners Facing Foreclosure

press.namct.com

Experts are predicting that the foreclosure rate will sky rocket as a result of the new bankruptcy law that takes effect on October 17, 2005. The national grip of foreclosure on American families has reached epidemic status and will be made much worse by the new bankruptcy law that requires mandatory credit counseling prior to filing for bankruptcy protection.

“Most consumers do not know that this requirement means that they cannot stop a foreclosure sale of their homes until 180 days after they have sought credit counseling” said Addison, a certified housing counselor and President of Save Your Home, Inc. “This means that there will be a lot of cheap homes dumped on the market because according to the American Bankruptcy Institute over 400,000 people used Chapter 13 bankruptcy to stop foreclosure sales in 2004.”



To: regli who wrote (35413)8/16/2005 1:50:23 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Resolving the Falling Baltic Dry Index vs Rising Crude Oil:
financialsense.com
===============================================================
You really think shipping prices would fall for months on end by China withholding a few tanker ships of oil?
I don't.
The notion seems more than silly.
What was interesting was (assuming his tanker facts is correct) is there is no glut in excess shipping capacity caused by increased fleet size.
Mish



To: regli who wrote (35413)8/16/2005 10:56:08 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. CPI up 0.5% in July on energy costs -
Tuesday, August 16, 2005 2:02:11 PM
afxpress.com

(This is an update to correct core CPI.)
WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Soaring energy prices pushed the U.S. consumer price index up 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, the Labor Department said Tuesday

Excluding food and energy prices, however, the core CPI increased a tame 0.1%

The report leaves the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates again by a quarter percentage point in September, economists said

The increase in the CPI was slightly ahead of expectations of a 0.4% gain among Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The core CPI was expected to rise 0.2%. The increase in the CPI was the highest since April. The CPI was flat in June. Meanwhile, core prices have increased 0.1% three months in a row

In the past year, the CPI has risen 3.2%, up from 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in June. The year-over-year gain in the core rate ticked a tenth of a percent higher to 2.1% in July. Core inflation remains within the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. Policymakers are clearly alert to the dangers, having raised interest rates 10 times in the past 14 months to quell inflationary pressures

"The headline inflation rate remains elevated, stoked by energy prices, and the only way the Fed can ensure the pass-through to core inflation is kept to a minimum is to push the funds target up to at least a neutral level," said Sherry Cooper, chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns

"Inflation pressures remain a concern with the unemployment rate close to breaching the 5% level and the price of a barrel of oil over $65," said Drew Matus, an economist with Lehman Bros

Wages aren't putting any pressure on firms to raise their prices. Real hourly wages fell 0.2% in July. Over the past year, real hourly and weekly earnings (adjusted for inflation) have fallen 0.5%. Energy prices, which increased 3.8%, were the main source of higher consumer prices in July. Gasoline prices rose 6.1%, while natural-gas prices increased 3.8%. Electricity prices fell 0.3%

In the past year, energy prices are up 14.2%, while gasoline prices are up 19.5%

Elsewhere, consumer prices showed modest but accelerating gains

Housing prices, which accounts for 40% of the CPI, increased 0.4%, the most in four months. The acceleration was largely due to a reversal in hotel and motel prices, which rose 1.2%. Rents rose 0.3%, while owners' equivalent rent increased 0.2%

Transportation prices rose 1.5% on higher fuel costs. New car prices plunged 1% as automakers continued to offered generous bargains, marking the largest drop in new car prices in 30 years. Used car prices rose 0.8%. Airfares rose 1.7%

Medical care prices increased 0.4%, the most since March. Hospital services prices increased 0.6%, while drug prices rose 0.4%

Apparel prices fell 0.9%, the largest decline in four years. It was the fourth straight month of falling or flat apparel prices. Over the past year, apparel prices have fallen 1.8%. Food prices increased 0.2% in July, as increases in fresh fruit prices offset a drop in beef and pork prices

The Labor Department will report on July's producer price index, tracking inflation at the wholesale level, on Wednesday. Economists expect a 0.5% gain, with the core PPI expected to rise 0.1%. In a separate report issued Tuesday, the Commerce Department said housing starts fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.042 million in July. Building permits for single-family homes, meanwhile, rose to a record 1.69 million. The Federal Reserve reported industrial production increased 0.1% in July, below the 0.5% expected and the 0.8% gain in June. Auto production fell offsetting some of the increase in production of business equipment



To: regli who wrote (35413)8/16/2005 11:07:31 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Heinz on gold....

Mish:
In 420
Out 449
Hoping for a pullback
May not get it

Heinz:
it's already begun, imo. i don't really believe there's a whole lot of short term upside beyond 450 barring an event. 450 is home to the largest call OI....to go through that will be difficult. also, specs have now a huge net long position in the futures (per se not a reason for a decline, but it'll magnify the decline when it comes).