Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (67675)	8/16/2005 9:17:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

we must read stratfor for what it is, amusement and triangulation

To: shades who wrote (67675)	8/17/2005 8:27:24 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

dunnt worry about russia, it is collapsing, again, according to stratfor :0) btw, fyi, the british saved the russian submariners Geopolitical Diary: Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2005 Russia displayed its military might on Tuesday with large-scale military exercises in the Far East in tandem with Chinese forces, and in the European far north, to demonstrate the strength of the country's nuclear deterrent, naval and other assets. Nationalist pressures are building in Russia. After losing, in rapid succession, the Soviet Union and then influence in the Baltics, Georgia, Azerbaijan, parts of Central Asia, Ukraine and Moldova (and with Armenia and Belarus under pressure from the United States and others), many inside and outside the Kremlin feel that Russia has fallen too far and that the danger now is mortal: Russia itself is under a real threat of collapse through a pro-Western "revolution" that would lead to openly pro-Washington forces taking power in Moscow -- and then hastening its march down the road of collapse and extinction. They most certainly have a point. Without these territories -- and particularly without Ukraine -- Russia's chances of survival are exceedingly slim. The shifting borders of the past 15 years, and the shifting patterns of influence during the past three, not only have broken up Russia's geopolitical space, but more importantly, have physically constrained Russia's ability to act in its own self-defense. No border with Afghanistan means that Russia cannot directly counter Islamist militants there. No border with Poland minimizes Moscow's ability to influence Europe and defend itself from the West. No border with Iran limits the Kremlin's ability to court Tehran as an ally. A Russia without Ukraine is one that not only has its industrial and agricultural heartlands truncated, but one that is utterly indefensible from a potential Western invasion. The Russian strategy reaching back into the 1980s appears to have been to trade geopolitical concessions for economic assistance. The feeling among top leaders at the time was that Russia (or in another day the Soviet Union) was doomed if nothing changed, so why not take the long shot that the West will accept peace terms? Then, as now, the West scoffed at the terms and Russia emerged weaker as a result. With increasing volume, the emerging mantra in Moscow is a simple "Enough!" Russia's back is to the wall, and the West -- far from extending a helping hand -- is going in for the kill. Russia thus far has kept its responses constrained -- the Putin government does not want a full breach with the West -- but reminding Western capitals that Russia retains the military capability to level a substantial percentage of the planet's surface is hardly a light step. Disenchanted nationalist forces are brewing, and strengthening, in Russia. Tuesday's military demonstrations are a reflection of that. But if Russia is to resurge, it will need to do more than simply engage in the military equivalent of chest-beating. What follows are not recommendations, but what will happen in Russia barring the unlikely event that the country simply decides to collectively lie down and die. The Russian economy is in shambles and controlled by fewer than 100 people; thus, the oligarchs will have to go. The Russian political system is inefficient and, most nationalists fear, a haven for foreign sympathizers; thus, any but the most superficial forms of regional autonomy must be eliminated. Russia's demographic picture is, at best, atrocious; thus, a population management policy the West will find brutal will need to be enacted. And of most importance to our geopolitical line of work, the Western offensive is dealing with political movements, quiet financing of dissidents, closed meetings, and peaceful "revolutions," not military force; thus, the KGB will need to be resurrected in function and force, if not in name. These are the signals to watch for in the Russia to come. For if Russia is not going to go quietly into that good night, it will need to change. Firmly. Radically. Soon.