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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (67711)	8/17/2005 4:21:25 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Here I posted all this crap just for you :) Cramer says go long GOOG to get defensive! Booyah! 'Real Money' Radio Recap: Time to Play Defense By TheStreet.com Staff 8/17/2005 4:03 PM EDT Click here for more stories by TheStreet.com Staff Nuclear winter isn't upon us, but autumn almost is, when football strategy calls for a good defense, Jim Cramer told listeners on his "RealMoney" radio show Wednesday. Getting defensive doesn't necessarily mean going to cash, noted Cramer. One can find stocks that make money in a slower-growing environment such as Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Altria (MO:NYSE - commentary - research) and Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE - commentary - research). Cramer cautioned that now is not the time to be tempted by Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF:NYSE - commentary - research), American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS:Nasdaq - commentary - research) or Urban Outfitters (URBN:Nasdaq - commentary - research). Cramer also likes UnitedHealth Group (UNH:NYSE - commentary - research) and Humana (HUM:NYSE - commentary - research), Syneron Medical (ELOS:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Zimmer Holdings (ZMH:NYSE - commentary - research). Think foods, cosmetics and some health care. "Don't' overthink it." Listener Questions A caller wanted to know if the selloff in homebuilders is a buying opportunity. Cramer said it is not. "When I get more defensive, I don't want to view the break in housing stocks as an opportunity," Cramer said. "The stocks are telling us interest rates are going to go higher ... and the value of your home is going to stabilize and not go up." This scenario won't cause a crash, but the valuations of housing stocks are going to shrink. Cramer said Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research) could retreat to 12 times earnings, or the low $40s. Lennar (LEN:NYSE - commentary - research) could fall to the mid $50s. Cramer said he would lighten up on housing, but he still wouldn't sell all his homebuilders. Nevertheless, "Don't use this selloff as an opportunity. There will be better opportunities." Another caller asked if one should buy more of Google on the pullback or if on speculation it might be added to the S&P 500. Cramer said it was very tough to predict what Standard & Poor's would do. Cramer likes Google and is confident earnings estimates are too low. But, he likes Yahoo! better after its recent selloff. Cramer would buy Google on a selloff, but he would buy Yahoo! first. eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - commentary - research) is his third choice among Internet stocks. Another caller wanted to know if Cramer used technical analysis such as Bollinger Bands or moving averages. Cramer said he used technical analysis when he was at his hedge fund for entry and exit points when trading. But, since he can't trade now, he has less use for the charts. What he does now when a stock goes lower is buy more, which is antithetical to technical analysis. Picks & Pans American International Group (AIG:NYSE - commentary - research): The company got into some trouble, but it has been straightened out now. Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - commentary - research): Quality company. Apple Computer (AAPL:Nasdaq - commentary - research): Apple is "right" tech stock to own. General Electric (GE:NYSE - commentary - research): GE is good because it is more of a financial, healthcare and entertainment stock than a manufacturer like Caterpillar. Cardinal Health (CAH:NYSE - commentary - research): Cramer likes Cardinal, but it is not is favorite healthcare stocks. Vector Group (VGR:NYSE - commentary - research): Among tobacco stocks, Cramer likes Altria better. But, VGR is fine. ConAgra Foods (CAG:NYSE - commentary - research): Stock pays a nice dividend. Charles Schwab (SCH:NYSE - commentary - research): A solid financial stock. Terra Nitrogen (TNH:NYSE - commentary - research): Fine. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS:Nasdaq - commentary - research): This cell-phone tech stock is good in a slowdown because cell phones are not really discretionary any more. Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - commentary - research): A fine company, but there are better tech stocks such as Apple and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research). Enterra Energy Trust (EENC:Nasdaq - commentary - research): Time to trim. National-Oilwell Varco (NOV:NYSE - commentary - research): Keep this one, it's a late-cycle oil play. It supplies the drillers, and companies are still drilling. Reader email What would you do with an inheritance of $150,000? Cramer said he would take $100,000 and invest conservatively. The rest he would put into a self-managed portfolio of individual stocks if one had the time to monitor the portfolio and the inclination to take care of it. One needs to allow about one hour per week per position and needs to know how to read company reports.

To: shades who wrote (67711)	8/17/2005 7:20:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

i think the sub help is quid quo pro for space station help ... you think ? thinking, it helps to clarify the brain failing that, observing also can help what the cowboy can and cannot do is for all the world to see at the mo, and the only worrying thing that is worth pondering, is that the cowboy cannot think, do, or stop, and he is in control only to the extent that he believes he is in control in fact the cowboy cannot tell a war from a state of is, can only find the wrong enemy when the right one cannot be defined, cannot tell when the mission is not over, but can see the endgame when there is actually none, and do not realize, that unlike the war in the jungle, there is no negotiation 'opposite' that would even allow peace with honor at some point, taxes will rise, and draft will be in at that point people will be able to think more clearly and observe more precisely at that mo, the cowboy's successor will realize, 'gee, i need help', and truth be told, australia, japan, britain, italy, ... thailand, indonesia, ... philippines, cannot possibly provide much of any help, other than decoration ... simply put, they are not in the continental league, and their weakness is that they are electorally inclined, and india will not be able to help, for it is electorally inclined, and faith-complicated so, think, help for the sub, is just good pr for the team that will be needing plenty of it, assuming stratfor is wrong, usually a safe bet, that russia is in fact not collapsing, but getting stronger in the meantime, mathematically, china is financing the war in part, and so, helping, in a strange sort of way, by fate at some point the cowboys successor will be asking for help, a lot of it, from the most unexpected continentals is my guess 'one is either a contrarian or a victim', to quote the wise you perhaps see how thinking can help with the realization of the truth, and for your info, the truth is never conveniently featured on cspan, and that we must pity the one who believes otherwise

To: shades who wrote (67711)	8/17/2005 9:03:24 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

hello shades, regarding stratfor, by which i use for triangulation, they with their point view, and i with by judgement of the truth ... i figure more troubles going forward, because the last time i looked at the map,india sits between pakistan and bangladesh, and the three have a history together, going back a ways if so, then new dynamism is being injected into an old story, and the story is not yet over me guess the cowboy will be calling for help before even i believe possible, and soon, else the mess will be difficult to contain, much less to clean up tip of the day, buy the dip in energy, and count on trouble in saudi arabia, for it is obvious, and venezuela, for it is certainly possible, and gee, the swing producers may be supposedly disintegrating russia andostensibly enemy iran Bangladesh Bombings: Responding to al Qaeda's Call Summary More than 400 bombs exploded in a span of about half an hour across Bangladesh on Aug. 17. The bombs were crude and ineffective, leaving two people dead and more than 140 injured. However, the spread and sheer volume of the bombings indicates that local Islamist militants are responding to al Qaeda's call to establish an Islamic state and expel Westerners from the Muslim world. Analysis At least 400 timed explosive devices and firecrackers exploded nearly simultaneously between 11 a.m. and 11:39 a.m. local time Aug. 17 in Bangladesh's capital city of Dhaka and the southeastern port city of Chittagong, killing two people and injuring more than 140. The bombings occurred outside the Sheraton hotel in Dhaka, the Dhaka International Airport, government and court buildings, universities and bus and train stations. The bombings appeared amateurish -- the explosives were small, homemade devices likely intended to cause minimal casualties but generate panic across the country. Leaflets were reportedly found around the blast sites with messages from local Islamist militant group Jamiat-ul Mujahideen (JuM) that read, "It is time to implement Islamic law in Bangladesh. There is no future with man-made law." Other flyers read, "Bush and Blair, be warned and get out of Muslim countries. Your days of ruling Muslim countries are over." Messages also included direct threats against nongovernmental organizations engaged in "anti-Islamic activity in Muslim countries." The local Islamist militant outfits linked to this organized operation include JuM and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB). JMJB follows the teachings of the Taliban and has known links to al Qaeda, while JuM is an active Islamist group connected to JMJB and claimed responsibility for two bombings that occurred within one week in January. Both attacks targeted cultural events and were small in magnitude and casualty counts. Though both groups have been unable to coordinate such a spectacular -- albeit ineffective -- attack in the past, it is possible that Bangladesh's local Islamist movement is showing that it has jumped on al Qaeda's jihadist bandwagon and is looking for support. Though it is admittedly easy to blame al Qaeda every time something blows up, it is important to understand how the transnational jihadist movement behaves. Al Qaeda's tactics include three kinds of attacks: 1. Large-scale attacks outside the Muslim world micromanaged by the al Qaeda leadership, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. These attacks include the Sept. 11 attacks, the Madrid bombings and the July London bombings. 2. Attacks carried out by local al Qaeda franchises, which include al Qaeda's organized branches in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. 3. Exported attacks carried out by local militant Islamist groups in which al Qaeda prime relays a general call for attacks but the expectation of success is usually low. The Bangladesh bombings fall into this category, as do attacks staged by the Taliban in Afghanistan and local militant groups in Pakistan. Home to the world's third-largest Muslim population, Bangladesh is an ideal breeding ground for Islamist militants. Al Qaeda even has a liaison in Bangladesh -- Fazlur Rahman Khan, emir of the Jihad Movement in Bangladesh and a signatory to the 1998 declaration of war against the United States issued by bin Laden and his then-newly launched World Islamic Front for Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders. Bangladesh is also not without geopolitical importance; though limited, its primary significance is that it is the second-largest contributor to U.N. peacekeeping forces, with more than 8,400 peacekeepers from Bangladesh deployed all over the world. Tactically speaking, the Aug. 17 bombings were ineffective if the goal was to inflict many casualties. However, low casualty numbers would be beneficial if the responsible groups wanted to display a jihadist presence in Bangladesh without alienating potential supporters in the country. Just as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi attracted al Qaeda's attention with brutal beheadings and large-scale attacks in Iraq, local militants in Bangladesh could be using a similar tactic to garner support. The local militants are not likely to achieve such a goal, however, given Bangladesh's liberal society and secularist-dominated military. Transnational militant Islamism is no stranger to Bangladesh. Though the bombings were highly unsophisticated, the political messages associated with the attack reveal shades of al Qaeda -- or of a tactic meant to draw al Qaeda prime's attention. If transnational jihadism begins to spread into South Asia, India could be the next country facing an increased threat from indigenous Islamist groups that al Qaeda has incited into action. Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.