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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: paret who wrote (9741)8/18/2005 2:50:05 AM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 32591
 
Dollars and Cents

posted by wretchard
The Belmont Club

The paper, US Defense Strategy After Saddam authored by Dr. Michael O'Hanlon of the Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute examines how the War on Terror will affect US military expenditures in the coming years. (Hat tip: MIG)

O'Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at Brookings, makes a number of surprising points in his analysis. The first is that military expenditures will be lower, as a percentage of GNP, than at any time in the past.
On page 8 of his paper, O'Hanlon gives the following figures from the Office of Management and Budget.
      Decade          Percent of GNP 
      1960s                10.7 
1970s 5.9
1980s 5.8
1990s 4.1
2000-2009 (projected) 3.4
However, the size of the military budget in absolute terms will continue to be huge because the American economy itself is so gigantic. O'Hanlon puts it this way:
    America’s defense budget is staggeringly high. Depending 
on how one estimates the spending of countries such as
China and Russia, U.S. defense spending almost equals
that of the rest of the world combined. In 2002, prior to
additional U.S. budget increases as well as the added
costs of the war in Iraq, American defense spending
equaled that of all the rest of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO), Russia, China, and Japan, combined.
That said, judging whether U.S. defense spending is high
or low depends on the measure. Compared with other
countries, it is obviously enormous ... Relative to the
size of the American economy, by contrast, it remains
modest by modern historical standards at about 4 percent
of GDP (half of typical Cold War levels, though nearly
twice the current average of most of its major allies).
Compared with Cold War norms, it is high in inflation-
adjusted or constant dollars, though not astronomically
so.
    Although Defense is spending more dollars, it has not 
greatly expanded in numbers of personnel. "Still, one
might ask why an active duty military of the same size as
the Clinton administration’s has grown in cost by more
$100 billion a year during the Bush presidency". The
answer is surprising. Examining the 2005 budget request
O'Hanlon found that "even adding up all these pieces,
less than 20 percent of the $100 billion real-dollar
growth in the annual Pentagon budget is due to the direct
effects of the war on terror." Twenty seven percent of
the requested increases were for higher salaries for
military personnel, reflecting the need to retain
personnel who might be lost to the service. Much of the
rest was required to "to restore funding for hardware to
historic norms after a 'procurement holiday' in the
1990s". Most of the pressure comes from "the main combat
systems of the military services, which are generally
wearing out. Living off the fruits of the Reagan military
buildup, the Clinton administration spent an average of
$50 billion a year on equipment, only about 15 percent of
the defense budget in contrast to a historical norm of
about 25 percent. This 'procurement holiday' must end,
and is ending."
However, spending more money on the same number of troops was not enough. The War on Terror required adding men to the ground forces and more money had to be found to support them. The uncertain duration and progress of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the possibility of action elsewhere meant that unanticipated expenses might occur. The Congressional Budget Office believed it possible that a 17% real increase in the Defense budget might be necessary to fight the War on Terror, threatening to push the military share of GNP back to its 1990s levels.

<<<

Expectations are for continued annual increases of about $20 billion a year -- roughly twice what is needed to compensate for the effects of inflation (or to put it differently, real budgets are expected to keep rising at about $10 billion a year). By 2009, the annual national security budget would total about $500 billion, in rough numbers -- about $450 billion when expressed in 2005 dollars. Indeed, given the administration’s plans, that is a conservative estimate of what its future defense program would cost the country (not even including any added costs from future military operations or the ongoing missions in Iraq and Afghanistan). The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, to fully fund the Pentagon’s current plans, average annual costs from 2010 through 2020 would exceed $480 billion (in 2005 dollars) and perhaps as much as $530 billion.
>>>

Dollars and cents provide part of the framework in which to examine strategic options. It's all very well to say "there are not enough troops in Iraq" or "we must teach Syria a lesson" or "we must continue to deter North Korea". But in the final analysis, the means to these proposed ends must be provided or the goals themselves adjusted to the resources at hand.

fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com

carlisle.army.mil



To: paret who wrote (9741)8/18/2005 7:18:48 AM
From: lorne  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 32591
 
Hamas: Armed struggle is sole strategy

Khaled Abu Toameh, THE JERUSALEM POST
Aug. 17, 2005
jpost.com

Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal declared on Wednesday that the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank marked the beginning of the end of the Zionist dream in Palestine.

Mashaal was speaking to reporters in Beirut and his remarks were broadcast live by a number of major Arab TV satellite stations.

Dubbing the pullout a "defeat in the face of Palestinian resistance and a significant step with historic dimensions," Mashaal said that as far as Hamas was concerned, the disengagement marked the beginning of the death of the Zionist dream.

"The resistance and the steadfastness of or people forced the Zionists to withdraw," he boasted. "The resistance is capable of ending the Israeli occupation and achieving all our rights. The armed struggle is the only strategy that Hamas possesses."

Mashaal reiterated his movement's refusal to lay down its weapons, saying Hamas's duty was to defend the Palestinians and help them restore their rights. "As long as Palestinian lands remain under occupation, Hamas won't law down its weapons," he stressed.

He said, however, that Hamas was not interested in a confrontation with the Palestinian Authority. "Hamas is not competing with the Palestinian Authority, but we reject attempts to monopolize power," he explained.

Mahmoud Zahar, Hamas's overall leader in the Gaza Strip, said in an interview published on Wednesday that his movement will move its activities to the West Bank after the disengagement.

"Now, after the victory in the Gaza Strip, we will transfer the struggle first to the West Bank and later to Jerusalem," Zahar told the London-based pan-Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat. "We will continue the struggle until we liberate all our lands. This is an important day for the Palestinians and proof that the armed struggle has born fruit."

Asked about Hamas's future plans, Zahar said: "Neither the liberation of the Gaza Strip, nor the liberation of the West Bank or even Jerusalem will suffice us. Hamas will pursue the armed struggle until the liberation of all our lands. We don't recognize the state of Israel or its right to hold onto one inch of Palestine. Palestine is an Islamic land belonging to all the Muslims."

Zahar said the disengagement would boost morale in the Arab and Muslim world and positively influence the [anti-US] campaign in Afghanistan and Iraq. "We are part of a large global movement called the International Islamic Movement," he explained.

Ismail Haniyeh, another Hamas official in the Gaza Strip, expressed his fear that Israel would target Hamas after the disengagement. He also warned the PA against cracking down on Hamas supporters as it did in 1996.

Meanwhile, the Popular Resistance Committees, an alliance of various Palestinian militias operating in the Gaza Strip, said it was planning to transfer the technology of rocket manufacturing to the West Bank after the disengagement.

Muhammed Abdel Al, one of the leaders of the committees, said his group would move the battle against Israel to the West Bank. "We will make every effort to transfer all forms of resistance [to the West Bank] because [Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon intends to move his defeated soldiers to the West Bank," he told reporters.

Abdel Al, who is better known by his nickname Abu Abeer, said his group had already begun transferring the technology of rockets and other military expertise to the West Bank. "We will transfer two-thirds of our budget to the West Bank," he said. "Our rockets have a range of 18 kilometers. This means that is we fire them from Kalkilya, they will hit the occupied city of
Tal al-Rabi [Tel-Aviv]."



To: paret who wrote (9741)8/19/2005 1:44:52 AM
From: Peter Dierks  Respond to of 32591
 
With friends like the UN, who needs enemies?

That is just disgusting. Paying for Hamas marketing materials attacking Israel. Wow, shocking and generally a bad idea.



To: paret who wrote (9741)8/20/2005 1:07:08 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32591
 
GAZA HISTORY - for 3000 years it was also a Jewish town with mixed faiths

EGYPTIAN PERIOD: 2300 BCE-720 BCE

Gaza first gained importance during Egyptian rule as Pharaoh Pepi I used the roads for military strategies. According to records, he used the road only five times as he entered Canaan seeking Lebanese timber to build his ships.
Egyptian Pharaoh Thutmose III, known for his lucrative campaigns into Syria and Babylonia in 1500 BCE, established Gaza as his base and even outfitted it with two defensive walls.
Shortly thereafter, the Philistines arrived on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
Ancient Philistia lies between what is now Gaza City in the south and Ashdod to the north. The exact site of the ancient city of Gaza remains unknown.

EARLY BIBLICAL PERIOD: 1000 BCE-712BCE
Gaza first appears in the Bible in Genesis, in reference to the boundaries of Canaan. It is also included in the description of the borders of Israel in the book of Numbers: "From Azmon the boundary shall turn towards the Wadi of Egypt [near el-Arish] and terminate at the [Mediterranean] sea." This refers to the entire present-day Gaza Strip and additional land in the Sinai Peninsula.
Gaza was originally allotted to the tribe of Judah as described in the book of Judges.
In Gaza, Samson carried the two gates of the city up the neighboring mountain and gained his strength back tearing down the temple of Dagan.
King David ultimately conquered Philistia, which included five major Philistine cities: Ashdod, Ashkelon, Gaza, Ekron, and Gat.
Gaza was the southernmost point of King Solomon’s kingdom. Once the kingdom separated into the kingdoms of Israel in the north and Judah in the south, Philistines continued their incursions into Israelite domain.

ASSYRIAN PERIOD: 712 BCE - 604 BCE

In 712 BCE, Gaza was annexed to the Assyrian Empire following Assyrian King Sargon II's victory over Egypt. The Assyrian empire then conquered large parts of both Israelite and Philistine areas around the 7th century BCE. The Kingdom of Judah survived the Assyrian invasion and was able to regain domination over parts of Philistia.

BABYLONIAN PERIOD: 604 BCE - 525 BCE

In 604 BCE, Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar destroyed Ashkelon. Soon after, the Babylonians killed or dispersed the rest of the Philistines. This period marked the end of the Philistine nation in history. There would be no further references to a Philistine nation, although the area continued to be known as Philistia.

PERSIAN PERIOD: 525 BCE-332 BCE

The Persians captured the area in 525 BCE and occupied it for nearly 200 years.
The Persian King Cambyses feasted his eyes on the Gaza as it was filled with wealth and strength. Cambyses used the city as a base for his Egyptian campaign as well as utilized it for its trade system. The ensuing trade in Persian goods only increased the city’s wealth.

GREEK PERIOD: 332-96 BCE

In 332 BCE the Greeks, headed by Alexander the Great, had heavy catapults dragged hundreds of miles from the north down to Gaza for a siege against the Persians. While most of Israel welcomed the Greeks, Gaza City expressed disdain and revolted.
Alexander's forces battled for two bloody months before they were able to breach the ramparts held by the Persians and Arabs allies of the Gazans and prevailed. As part of punishment, Alexander the Great killed close to 10,000 men, enslaved women and children, and sent the wealth of Gaza off to Greece.
Gaza was reorganized as a polis, a Greek city-state and continued to have a strong reputation for trade.
At the start of the Greek Empire, Gaza had a flourishing economy trading in spices and goods to countries as far as India and Ethiopia. Other goods included gold, olive oil, silks, medicines, perfumes, ivory, and much more, but the key to its export economy was frankincense.

HASMONEAN PERIOD: 96-63 BCE

Gaza was first attacked in 145 BCE by Yochanan the Hasmonean, brother of Judah the Maccabee, but wasn’t taken by the Hasmoneans until 96 BCE when King Alexander Yanai laid siege on the city.

ROMAN PERIOD: 63 BCE-4TH CENTURY

In 63 BCE, Roman rule began under Pompey, who captured the remains of Gaza City from the Maccabees and rebuilt the city as a Roman town.
Archaeological proof of a considerable Jewish population in Gaza during the Talmudic period is provided in a relief of a menorah, shofar, lulav, and etrog, which appear on a pillar of the Great Mosque of Gaza. Other inscriptions in Hebrew and in Greek were also found from this era.
The Talmud relates that the Sage Eliezer ben Yitzchak lived in the Jewish town of Kfar Darom, believed to be today's Palestinian town of Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip

BYZANTINE PERIOD: 4TH CENTURY-634 CE

Just as Gaza City had resisted Alexander, so too was it the last city on the Levantine coast to submit to Christianity. Sixty-three years after Emperor Constantine made Christianity the state religion of the Byzantine Empire, the ascetic Bishop Porphyrius arrived in Gaza, where the city's merchant elite worshipped the Hellenistic god Marna in a famous domed temple, one of eight about the city. Until then, the emperor had been reluctant to force the new faith on Gaza, fearing that if prominent citizens fled or were killed, "its trade will be ruined."
His fears were unfounded. Historian Glanville Downey, in his book Gaza in the Sixth Century, writes that even though imperial troops burned the temples, "beat the pagans with clubs and staves" and quickly built a church upon the rubble of the temple of Marna, the city prospered overall and even, in this early Christian era, reached new heights.
Gaza was adorned with a new wall and moat, new baths, new churches, a market, and a main street lined with marble columns. A library was constructed, and a school of rhetoric developed that in the early sixth century was esteemed as second only to Alexandria's.

ARAB PERIOD: 634-1099 CE

In the twilight of the Byzantine era, Gaza became the home of an increasingly influential group of Arab traders from Mecca. Among them was Umar ibn al-Khattab, later to become the second Caliph of Islam. Another, much earlier trader, Hashim, would die in Gaza before he could see his great-grandson Muhammad change history.
In the years becoming a prophet, Muhammad is believed to have visited Gaza more than once. In his early 20's, he arrived with the summer caravans, in the employ of the Meccan merchant Khadija, who would later become his first wife.
More than 30 years later, when Muslims set out to capture the weakening Byzantine lands for Islam, Muhammad's commanders knew that Gaza held the key to both Palestine and Egypt.
Islam gradually added a new dimension to Gazan commerce: the Hajj. Muslim pilgrims on the long journey from North Africa to Mecca found safe passage along the Via Maris (Way of the Sea) through Gaza. From northern Palestine, too, pilgrims often preferred the coastal route through Gaza to the King's Road along the Jordan River. Even pilgrims passing directly from Cairo to Arabia through the Red Sea port of Aqaba bought grain, fruit and meat imported from Gaza to the north.

MAMLUK PERIOD: 1291-1516 CE

Gaza was a prosperous city under the Mameluks. ÑA city so rich in trees it looks like a cloth of brocade spread out upon the land," wrote the 14th-century Syrian scholar al-Dimashqi of his extensive view of Gaza City.
Meshulam of Volterra, a Jewish pilgrim, found 60 Jewish families in Gaza City in 1481. Jews produced all of the wine of Gaza, and other Gazan Jews worked as artisans.
To protect the trade that fueled their Cairo-based empire, the Mamluks constructed khans, or fortified caravan hostels, throughout Palestine.

OTTOMAN PERIOD: 1516-1917 CE

In 1516, at the battle of Yaunis Khan, Turkish forces under the Grand Vizier Sinan Pasha defeated the Mameluks near Gaza.
Beginning in 1520, the multi-religious and multi-ethnic community prospered under the rule of the great Ottoman Sultan Suleiman I. The flourishing Jewish community in Gaza City included a Bet Din (Jewish religious court) and a yeshiva. Gazan rabbis ruled that Jewish farmers had to observe the agricultural Sabbatical year in Gaza, as it was considered part of the Land of Israel.
In 1665, on the occasion of Shabbetai Tzvi's visit to Gaza, the city became a center of his messianic movement.
In the 19th century, Gazan Jews were mainly barley merchants whose product was exported by Beduin to Europe's beer breweries.
At the beginning of World War I, the Ottoman Empire ordered a series of evictions of Jews from Israel, including the 2,000-strong Jewish community in Gaza City.