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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (42606)	8/18/2005 11:55:07 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68734

Financial News Enter symbol(s) Symbol Lookup TradingMarkets.com I'm Bullish On Stocks In These 2 Sectors -- Here's How You Enter Wednesday August 17, 11:23 am ET By Gary Kaltbaum For more great trading ideas go to www.TradingMarkets.com I told you on August 4th that RETAILERS (AMEX:RTH - News) appeared to have topped. The nail may have just been put into the coffin. ADVERTISEMENT Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) beat earnings by .02, but it lowered guidance due in part to high gasoline prices. Of course, high gas prices are meaningless. Right? That's what I keep hearing. I keep hearing that inflation adjusted, prices are lower than where they were 20 years ago. Are you kidding? Last I looked, I am paying 50% more for gas than last year.. This is a huge tax on the consumer, business and the economy as a whole...but don't worry The government says not to worry. When they come out with their inflation numbers, they want you to believe the number should EXCLUDE food and energy. Methinks some in the government are smoking the same stuff Willie Nelson is famous for. Other RETAILERS went along for the ride. RETAILERS have topped as a whole and should be avoided. Do not underestimate their importance as they have been a leading group in the latest leg up in the market. Leading names like (NYSE:ANF - News), (NasdaqNM:AEOS - News), (NasdaqNM:BEBE - News), (NYSE:DKS - News), (NYSE:JWN - News) and others have been absolutely mauled. Do keep in mind that there are many RETAILERS reporting this week...so some playing fields may change...but as a whole, the market is speaking loud and clear. That leads me into the market. Up one day...down the next...seems like we are getting into that pattern again. The NASDAQ has had its third distribution day in the past week. I told you the NASDAQ had a date with the lower 2100's and that's exactly what is happening. Time to look at support levels again. The S&P broke below near-term support at 1222. It now lies right at its recent breakout at 1219. I don't need to tell you what a failed breakout in the S&P can mean. The DOW is a smidge below near term support...which was 10524. It now sits on its converging moving averages. This is do or croak time for the lagging DOW. Smaller cap indices like the RUSSELL and the MID CAP 400 are now tracing out short term tops. Any further drop will break them down off of inverted cup and handle patterns. Need I say more. Sector notes: I continue to believe OIL STOCKS (AMEX:OIH - News) are going to pull back...just like they have the past couple of days. I suspect there is another 3-5% to go in the near-term as they remain extended. OIL stocks are still buyable into the pullback. I believe COMMODITY stocks are now about to start pulling back. They had become a wee bit too extended also. They are still bullish...just need better entries. The SOX is now approaching ITS major breakout level of 450. Many SEMICONDUCTOR (AMEX:SMH - News) names have already broken down. Some of the bigger caps that have a major influence are still hanging in there...namely (NYSE:TXN - News), (NYSE:NSM - News) and a few others. Bulls do not want 450 to be violated. Gary Kaltbaum