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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (35542)	8/18/2005 12:34:24 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Look I gave you 6 or 7 reasons why other things matter, including what other government do to react to the slowdown (a huge unknown). I could be right (or not) but you based your analysis on one factor out of a list of them based on one statement made in isolation. I am sorry that was superficial analysis. It does not mean you will be wrong, it just means your analysis was not best. No more no less. Perhaps you think mine was poor too. That is of course your perrogative. This is not an if A then B situation at all because there are other things to be considered. One the basis of US $ losing its hegemony (which may not even happen although I think strongly that it does), you trot out hyperinflation ideas and proclaim inflation is a given. I logically pointed out many reasons why that is not the case. You might think that I underestimate the affects of the US$. OK perhaps I did and perhaps I still do. You on the other hand failed to consider many many things, especially overcapacity, falling demand, debt levels, savings rates, and productivity that I believe will all be more important than a falling US$. Notice that I failed to even mention debt levels, the ability to take on more debt and savings rates, or even jobs. Add those to the list. My point was you concentrated on a single thing out of many, jumping to conclusions. I can not PROVE my point of view now but I can prove that you made a claim of inflation/hyperinflation on the basis of a single factor out of many. That, especially after discussions ad infinetum about those other factors was just not good analysis. I am not asking you to agree with me. I have stated many time that I would just assume have everyone think I am nuts. But that does not mean someone should discard everything but a falling US$ (something that may not even happen although as I stated I believe it will happen). Mish