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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (35552)	8/18/2005 2:49:26 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Suttree no need to. I started it. At any rate let me add another point.... Heinz and I are well aware we could be wrong and there might be some sort of US$ panic that causes this thing to blow up. I have discussed this before. Nothing is etched in stone, there are just likelihoods. However, both of us think that panic will be years down the line, after a housing crash and writeoff of debt. It can indeed happen before that. Neither of us sees it happening soon. The following thoughts are mine, not necessarily Heinz's (he may or mat not agree - I simply do not know): Generally when everyone is looking one direction something else happens. I think the problems with the dollar are well known and central banks everywhere are unlikely to take actions that will crash it. Right now I see nearly everyone looking for inflation and a US$ crash. I am looking the other way. In general I believe I am more bullish on the $ than Heinz. Not bullish, just more so. If the US starts agressively cutting rates and the UK and EU do not budge, the US$ is certainly going to fall out of bed, and gold will likely soar. Mish