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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (133601)	8/21/2005 3:58:47 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 793832

Do you care to see how many articles were written about the housing boom several years ago? When for example TOL was trading at $10 verse todays $50?

To: greenspirit who wrote (133601)	8/21/2005 6:37:50 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 793832

I don't the NYT article suggested that oil prices are at a peak, but that oil supplies are at a peak. The argument is made in large measure on the research done by Matt Simmons, who has written an interesting book, Twilight in the Desert, in which he describes in minute detail the status of the major Saudi oil fields. I've read the book. His very careful analysis of the data is very convincing. Nonetheless, I think that perhaps he underestimates the power of technology to find new ways to extract oil from geologically difficult places, but this is a minor point in the big picture of things. In my view, Simmons has it right--the Saudi oil fields cannot produce the 10 billion barrels of oil per year that they have been producing for very much longer. While technology may to some extent make available some oil which cannot be produced now, it won't make a substantial difference. What does this mean from an investment standpoint? 1.- Oil will be more expensive, and major oil companies, especially those with substantial reserves, will prosper. 2.- There will be more exploration efforts. Thus, the service companies--drilling, offshore boats, drilling mud, etc.--will do well. 3.- Refiners will do well, especially those which can refine the more sour oil. Valero comes to mind. 4.- Sand shale oil in Canada is plentiful but expensive to produce. But cost won't make a substantial difference if the price is right.

To: greenspirit who wrote (133601)	8/21/2005 9:00:29 PM
From: unclewest	Respond to of 793832

Given the assumption that oil prices are at their peak and going to drop, what are some good investment opportunities which take advantage of the fall? In the past, every time oil prices spiked the US suffered a recession. Recently someone posted a link to a chart showing that. I see no reason not to expect the same now. I also think whoever keeps reporting in MSM that there is no inflation must live on the moon. Around here the price of everything is going up IMO our economy is being sustained currently by tax cuts and real estate inflation. Millions of families are refinancing or getting equity loans to buy boats, RVs and other stuff that depreciates quickly. Unfortunately this kind of debt doesn't go away as fast as the depreciation erodes value. Looming recession, plus over leveraged homes (100+% loans), plus ridiculous real estate prices (that will drop imo, leaving banks as bag holders), plus record high energy prices creates a formula for a catastrophe with a much greater impact than the 50% NASDAQ drop that occurred while Clinton was Pres. During the past two periods of inflation I sold stocks and did very well by investing in leveraged real estate. This time I have been selling into the demand and high prices. I have one building left and I plan to keep it for my own use if the tenant ever moves out. When the next downward spiral begins, I don't see what will stop it.