Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (38742)	8/22/2005 2:10:17 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

A San Diego based investor/writer has the whole 1990 SoCal collapse documented month by month in his book. Among the most important indicators using a 12 month exponential moving average to generate vital signs for the local market in San Diego he has existing home sales and notices of default both generating a sell signal on March 1990 while new home permits gave the signal in August 1989 Looking on a month by month basis for San Diego existing home sales stayed very strong until October 1989. Here are his numbers for that period: 1/89 3320 2/89 3037 3/89 4629 4/89 4306 5/89 4417 6/89 4900 7/89 4063 8/89 4871 9/89 4336 10/89 4376 11/89 3735 12/89 3795 1/90 3037 2/90 2752 3/90 3901 4/90 3414 5/90 3626 6/90 3605 7/90 3319 8/90 3796 9/90 2627 10/90 2734 11/90 2223 12/90 2117 Robert Campbell - Timing the Real Estate Market sandiegorealestatereport.com cji.com

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (38742)	8/22/2005 11:46:41 PM
From: David Jones	Respond to of 306849

>>>>just like 1990, right?<<<<< Well I cant say, I view the winter of 89 as if a switch was shut off. That summer it was on for development by Christmas for get it. Three high end house's in Pleasanton that I mapped and were constructed by the summer of 89. Two of them sold right off but one took some time to move, like the next early early spring. By 91/94 "some where in there" the prices dropped form 537 to 480k. I cant recall the exact date right off. As I perceived it things changed rather quickly. I was damn glad I got rid of that 3 house subdivision but was stuck with phase two. Nine lots in tentative stage which I let die and resurrected in 96 and sold right off. It sure doesn't feel like 89-90. One could read the paper and listen to the news and for myself I could see it coming from the east to west all in a couple months. That's currently my recollection as to dates and such.