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Gold/Mining/Energy : GOLDEN PHOENIX MINERALS, GPXM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pogbull who wrote (395)	8/25/2005 10:47:21 PM
From: pogbull	Respond to of 811

E.Charters Moly Demand post from another thread: Phelps Dodge, a large Moly producer, published some thinking around November 2004 to the effect that Moly prices would rise and stay high for four years. They estimated the level to be in the high teens. NRCAN in 1997 predicted a worldwide moly shortage from increased Asian usage and use in general in more steel products, particularly cold weather steels, offshore oil rigs, car parts and pipelines. It is believed it has a use in structural steel as well. They went on to say the Chinese would go off the market and curtail exports to fulfill increasing domestic demand, and later when prices rose, probably return to participate in the market in order to harvest cash. All this came to pass. What is in the outlook is a continuing supercycle in Asian metal demand. Growth of this scale is hard to put a stopper in. In mixing metaphor, one could say the Genie is out of the bottle and it is hard to imagine the Chinese or Indians taking a backward step once well on the road to modernization. A Progressive Genie will not allow backstepping. In the past figuring of Moly demand largely focused on G7 usage and statistics. Internal Chinese and Asian demand was no factored. This has changed in the past 20 years along with the accelerated catalytic usage of Moly and other industrial usages of specialty iron alloys. This combination augurs for a more permanent and higher market for the metal. A presently unkown factor with regard to Moly demand is the increasing demand for Rhenium, a catalyst which is as effective as PGM's, and is recovered almost exclusively as a by product of Moly Sulphide roasting. In the past two years of Moly price run-up, Rhenium has had almost no price quotations. It's previous price of 1.75 a gram is probably not commensurate with the massive increase in Moly price. One sees the odd quote from metal dealers, but it is hard to get a handle on the actual contracts going by, as there is no spot market for the metal. One thing is certain. It has been demonstrated that as fuel cells become predominant as engines of economy in this world of ever rising fuel prices, that the supply of PGM's will be totally inadequate to meet demand. Is Re $54 an ounce or $544? No one seems to know. I know if you want one ounce of pure Re for a lab you will pay 1200 dollars, but what one gets for Re in flue dust is another question. Perhaps some people in the know have realized this and are stockpiling the metal by roasting Moly. If Rhenium is to become a widespread substitute for PGM's, then its price will rise substantially. Presently only 40% of the Moly roasters worldwide can recover Rhenium. The rest of the metal is discarded.