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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pezz who wrote (67976)8/29/2005 11:39:08 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Message 21650310



To: pezz who wrote (67976)4/29/2008 8:11:41 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
hello pezz, last night's report:

<<Well no guts no glory>>

(i) marked the top, perhaps, by selling

all ultrashort russell
all ultrashort oil/gas
all ultrashort china
all slv silver
some gld gold

and covered mexico short

no details necessary
a full rout, best forgotten
fight another day another day, for sure

(ii) today i will know whether i am successful in acquiring some real estate and will see if my syndicate wants to partake. if yes and no, i will have more real estate, and if yes and yes, i will have less of more, and if no and no, i will continue shopping

(iii) tomorrow is holiday, May Day.

Chugs, TJ



To: pezz who wrote (67976)4/29/2008 9:04:39 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
hello pezz, followup report: i will not trouble you with numerous posts but i figured i'd mention in passing that this trade Message 24457143 is working out nicely , in that while china mining is holding level, and chaoda is up a little bit ... bit over 29 % in as many days

just back from dropping erita at school, and about to be off again for i do not quite remember what

btw, just got notified that vessel substitution is accepted by principal and am allowed to berth to pick up 75k tons of thermal coal from huanhua port destined for buyer in philippines ... of course these zigs and zags have not been reported before and in any case the lootings from such are not tallied into the pf as they sit inside of corporate vehicles out there somewhere.

but seeing as some zim dim believes he is the only one taking from the 'market', i figured i would set the record straight, to mark the copybook as it were :0)

chugs, tj



To: pezz who wrote (67976)4/30/2008 9:19:23 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 74559
 
hello pezz, today’s report:

May Day working holiday, but have enough empty slots to still have a break of some sort, so that tomorrow, a light day, can be strung together with the weekend, and resulting in an effectively 3-days week.

The falcon outside the window and in the forest below nailed a snake for breakfast, and so answered my daughter’s question about what falcons ate. The day is otherwise grey. Perhaps the sun will manage to burn through at some point. We shall see.

(i) Following up the earlier report, it turned out that i was only able to secure 1/4 of the mentioned industrial units offered for sale given that demand in wang chuk hang area is still strong. I will simply take down the asset on own account and not bother the syndicate or fuss with starting new syndicate. The newest acquisition is at a 38% premium per square feet to the earlier purchase for and on behalf of the club and is in the same building. The reason may be due in part to all the announcements of area developments, but perhaps because I now have a claim on the roof space.

The HK credit crunch, very much connected to the USA strain, while certainly already on, and has already put a stop to luxury real estate dealings, has not impacted buying enthusiasm in what is actually not that large an area for redevelopment. The loan to purchase price offered is still at 70% for industrial space whereas for lesser properties has dropped considerably, i.e. asking price will follow loans on offer, invariably, given time.

I am guessing a lot of folks around the world have wasting dollars and hope to park in bricks and mortar at construction cost and simultaneously secure a yield higher than bank accounts – of course, securing a yield higher than 0.01% per annum daily call rate and 0.75% per annum 24-months fixed rate is not that difficult. Alternatively, farm land or hedge funds or whatever else.

(ii) China may institute domestic market coal price control according to latest rumors in effort to stem speculation I suppose, and such actions should by and by happen across the globe on all important commodities, I guess, and if so, the imperative for price-control-free export of commodities whether by legal or a-legal (as opposed to illegal, which is difficult to accomplish when large ships and lots of trains are involved) should rise, thus allowing for more harvesting of rich fields of opportunity and pivoting of market channels going forward, assuming (i) export controls are not put on, or are not effective, and (ii) coal demand amongst customers remain dire - we shall see.

(iii) What I said about coal may also apply to corn, rice, coffee, whatever else, especially for the marginal producers.

In any case, yet another near crisis is averted and MV Tianjin Pioneer will soon dock to pick up rock hard goodness from China port and sail for the tropics, to execute a good old fashioned market trade so that more can be aggregated here in HK - delightfully magical, supremely satisfying, and more coal can be converted to mineralized savings that is gold and yielding a real return above bank rate. Such is what we have been reduced to by circumstances beyond our control, to grasp at this wager and that gambit, for as long as we can, knowing full well that nothing lasts forever, except, of course, gold :0)

(iv) My May day message to buddies is this Message 24549278

(v) Got to get to work now, then play, then work again.

Chugs, TJ