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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (123198)	8/23/2005 8:41:47 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

Stephen Roach suggested yesterday that the global inbalance which saw the US account for 98% of all world growth the past 10-years may now be shifting back to a more balanced system, with Germany and Japan the primary contributors. I believe he said the US was 25% percent of the world GDP 10-years ago, and Japan and Germany also combined for 25%. That share dropped to 14% recenty while the US remained at 25%. He's suggesting demand growth in Japan and Germany and slowing growth in the US may bring that old balance back, averting a global recession in the process. I still think the S&P will track the Nikkei over the next 2-1/2 years, and then I think the US will move sideways for 10 years.