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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35759)8/23/2005 5:20:06 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Tuesday, August 23rd and the markets are closed-
Corn: Last night, our crop condition report came out showing corn at 50% in good to excellent condition down 1% from the week prior and under last year’s record crop of 71%. Traders had expected a 1 to 2% increase after ample rainfall. This suggests the crop is done growing and only marginal adjustments to conditions lie ahead. Before I left on my crop tour I put on my Friday, August 12th report to expect rains to enter pushing December corn down to the 2.20 area at which time you should buy long and or buy a December 2.30 call option. Well, we hit a low of 2.21 last week giving us that chance to buy back our short positions and buy long. There is no bull market here, just a situation were weather can no longer be a bearish factor but no more than a friendly factor as well. What comes to the forefront the next 14 trading days is a mindset to buy back shorts on dips and light positioning long into September 12th. Large traders and funds look to take month end profits before next Wednesday and pay those handsome bonuses on profits taken while others look for opportunities to get long ahead of our September 12th USDA crop report which will be expected to show cuts in production over the August report. Put December corn stops under 2.20

Bean: Monday’s crop condition report put beans at 52% G-E up 1% from the week prior and 15% under a year ago. Traders had estimated a 3% or better number based on brood based rain last week. It suggests the majority of beans are done growing and weather can now only adversely effect the crop with little chance of any appreciable improvement. Like corn, beans to see the next 14 days of choppy trading but month end profit taking and long positioning ahead of the September 12 crop report as supportive factors. It is not likely we will test last Friday’s low before September 12th. Traders will use current crop tours to get a feel for crop sizes ahead of the report. There is no bullish environment. Those who took my advice and went short last week were greatly rewarded but I also gave low ranges to look at buying out and get long for a recovery into September 12th. Buy breaks on November with stops under 6.08 and trail them up as develops. Wxrisk.com sees only marginal rain in the midwest this weekend with heat returning with the next chance for big rain about September 1st.

Wheat: Monday’s crop progress report put spring wheat at 59% harvested. Condition reports ended on August 15th at 64% G-E condition. Weather’s only effect on wheat now is to bring harvest delays. We are basically in a demand driven market. Funds bought back short positions last week as seasonally harvest closure brings demand and commercials have been buyers off the lows. Today’s strength in prices were all in the Kansas City and Minneapolis exchanges. Note, it is the hard red winter wheat that is delivered on the K.C. contract and spring wheat on the Minneapolis exchange contracts. The C.B.T. is for soft red winter wheat. The C.B.T. was weak today. Support on December c.B.T. wheat is 3.30 then 3.20. K.C. September wheat had major resistance at 3.50 today. A close over here is bullish. Minneapolis September wheat had resistance at 3.55. Our Minneapolis high today was 3.504 and K.C. 3.53. Closes were 3.50 Minneapolis and 3.49 K.C.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35759)8/23/2005 5:28:11 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
China to widen yuan trading band after launch of market makers - govt advisor
Tuesday, August 23, 2005 12:04:45 PM
afxpress.com

BEIJING (AFX) - China will widen the yuan trading band after the launch of a market-making system and foreign exchange futures and options, a senior government advisor said in an interview with the official Xinhua news agency

"Only after these things have been done, can (we) expect the yuan trading band to be widened," said Li Yang, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science and former member of the central bank's monetary policy advisory committee

The report said the central bank is planning to launching market makers in yuan-US dollar trading, but offered no further details

Li said the trading band will be widened gradually and that the exchange rate will be kept stable for the benefit of domestic companies. "There won't be any drastic changes," he said

But he ruled out any major fluctuations in the exchange rate in the short term

Li also said that China does not need to disclose the detailed contents and weightings of the currency basket, because they are only used as a reference point

"It makes the others guess, giving the Chinese monetary authorities full control," he said

He said that under the new mechanism, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) can make adjustments "at any time and under any conditions", thereby allowing the government to decide what the exchange rate should be. PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier this month that the US dollar, Japanese yen, euro and Korean won constitute the bulk of the currency basket and said that others, including the Canadian dollar and British pound, are also factored in, but did not reveal weightings. After months of intense US pressure, China on July 21 freed the yuan from it 11-year-old peg to the US dollar in favor of a trade-weighted basket of currencies and allowed the local unit to appreciate 2.1 pct

However, the yuan trading band was then maintained unchanged at 0.3 pct and the central bank only said it would adjust the yuan trading band at the proper time.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35759)8/23/2005 5:30:40 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Forex - Euro steady despite strong ZEW survey
Tuesday, August 23, 2005 11:34:46 AM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - The euro remained steady against the dollar despite further evidence of a marked improvement in German business confidence

Analysts said much of the pick-up identified in the closely-watched ZEW survey has already been priced in. A growing belief has emerged in recent days that Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, is on the up

Nevertheless the survey from the ZEW Institute did enough to back up that belief. Its economic expectations index, based on a poll of 294 analysts and institutional investors, rose by 13 points to plus 50.0 points in August, against expectations of a more modest rise to 38.0

"An improvement in sentiment is well-priced and hence the euro is unlikely to appreciate notably on the data," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi analyst Derek Halpenny

Also published this week will be Germany's key IFO business climate survey on Thursday. Any further evidence that Germany is recovering could spark talk about higher interest rates in the 12-nation single currency zone, in sharp contrast to market sentiment only a few months ago

"The strong 13-point rise in the ZEW expectations index points to another strong 1.5-point rise in the IFO index according to the historical five-year relationship," said Kristjan Kasikov, currency strategist at CALYON, who noted that the the correlation between the daily change in euro/dollar and the ZEW surprise is an "unintuitive" -0.16

"The same analysis shows that the IFO survey, which is due on 25 August, has historically tended to be more market moving, with the same correlation between euro/dollar and the surprise standing at 0.63," he added

The euro has been undermined this year on a growing focus on cyclical considerations, especially in relation to the dollar

The US Federal Reserve is widely seen nudging its target lending rate from 3.50 pct to 4 pct or 4.25 pct by year-end. That compares to a 2 pct target in the euro zone that's not expected to change soon

The dollar was in the doldrums for much of the last couple of years, due to concerns over the financing of the US twin deficits, but surged to 10-month highs in early July in the wake of a series of political crises engulfing the EU as well as a greater emphasis on developments related to yield differentials

The euro has also been supported today by news yesterday that the euro zone attracted a record net portfolio inflow of 105 bln eur during June

"This is a big number, and, while there is no obvious one-off culprit, market participants will quite rightly be suspicious given the vagaries of balance of payments accounting and the fact that the euro was fairly weak in June," said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS. "However, the data does support the view that the aftermath of the French and Dutch referendums did not lead to an exodus by real money investors from the euro zone," he added

Meanwhile, the yen was on the backfoot on a combination of higher oil prices and a growing sense in the market that the likely re-election of Japanese premier Junichiro Koizumi has been largely priced in

Polls are beginning to suggest that Koizumi will sweep to victory in the Sept 11 elections on a programme of wide-ranging market reforms and that has helped the yen post solid gains over the last few sessions. Moreover, analysts said Asian currencies are under pressure from the renewed strength in oil prices. Traditionally, high oil prices have impacted on Asian currencies, particularly the yen, as the region is a net importer of oil.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (35759)8/23/2005 5:48:34 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 116555
 
PREMIUM GAS, COSTLY PRICES

What's a luxury car driver to do?

SOME CHANGE DRIVING HABITS; MANY JUST SHRUG

By Matt Nauman

Mercury News

As the price of premium gasoline soars past $3 a gallon, owners of high-performance luxury cars are changing their driving habits, complaining about rising costs or, more likely, just responding with a shrug.

The $3 gallon, the $50 tank, what's a driver to do?

``I need the gas,'' Saratoga real estate agent Azita Alaverdi said Monday afternoon as she pumped unleaded premium into her Mercedes-Benz CLK500 convertible at a Chevron station in Los Gatos. ``What are you going to do?''

Alaverdi drives from home to home, so her car is crucial to her job. And she's a loyal Chevron customer, so she didn't even take notice of the price -- for the record, $3.019 a gallon. Alaverdi paid $41.22 for 13.654 gallons.

AAA of Northern California said the price of premium reached an average $3.01 in the San Jose metropolitan area Monday. That compared with an average of $2.78 a gallon for regular unleaded and $2.96 a gallon for mid-range gas. Premium was even more expensive elsewhere in California: $3.02 in the Oakland area, $3.09 in the San Francisco area, and $3.03 statewide.

Premium gas is most likely at a record high, said AAA spokeswoman Jenny Mack, although the organization officially keeps records of only the highest prices for regular unleaded and diesel.

A month ago, according to Mack, a gallon of premium cost $2.80 in the San Jose area and statewide. A year ago, unleaded premium was $2.19 in San Jose and $2.25 statewide.

Nationally, the price of regular unleaded reached $2.61 a gallon last week, a new record.

Sev Borenstein, director of the University of California Energy Institute, said gas prices for all grades would probably go up an additional 5 or 10 cents before Labor Day, the summer's last big travel weekend.

Brian Battisti, a Los Gatos hair stylist, said rising gas prices have prompted changes to his business and his personal life. To shorten his commute, he moved his salon from Cupertino to Los Gatos last fall.

His in-laws, who were sitting inside a Honda Odyssey minivan as he pumped in $45 worth of regular unleaded, are about to change what they drive.

Marie Louise and John Bradley are moving to Rio Vista in the Sacramento Delta in search of more affordable housing.

But today, they'll be selling their BMW 745 sedan. The car, with its poor fuel economy and $80 fill-ups of premium unleaded, is ``killing us. It's absolutely killing us,'' Marie Louise Bradley said.

They want to buy a small, more fuel-efficient Mini Cooper, which they hope to fill up for only $30. That car also requires premium unleaded fuel.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency doesn't keep a count of how many models require their owners to use premium fuel. But spokesman Dave Ryan said, ``Only a small percentage of cars require premium.''

The agency's www.fueleconomy.gov Web site identifies which type of gas each model of car and truck requires.

Of the 99 2005 model-year small cars listed on the site, only 18 require premium fuel. Of 75 luxury sedans listed, 69 require premium unleaded fuel.

Mack said nine of 10 cars run fine on regular unleaded.

``By all means, if it doesn't call for it, don't spend your money on it,'' she said. But ``if your owner's manual says premium, you should stick to your owner's manual.''

Nationwide, as the price grows, there seems to be some move away from premium. According to the governments's Energy Information Administration, demand for regular unleaded grew 4.7 percent during the first five months of 2005, but demand for mid-range unleaded fell 5.0 percent and for premium unleaded fell 5.6 percent.

Here in California, during the same five-month period, demand for regular unleaded grew 7.5 percent, demand for mid-range fell 5.6 percent, but demand for premium increased 3.3 percent.

Based on actual consumption, relatively few drivers opt for higher-level grades. This year through May, Americans used 46.7 billion gallons of regular unleaded, but only 3.7 billion gallons of mid-grade gas and 5.9 billion gallons of premium.

Robert Jones, who pumped premium unleaded into his Audi A4 wagon Monday, remembers how everyone ``freaked out'' when gas passed $2 a gallon. Over the weekend, he paid $3.13 a gallon in San Francisco, so the $3.01 he was paying in Los Gatos felt ``cheap.''

He'd never consider putting a cheaper grade of gas into his car, which requires premium fuel.

Nick Rodoni, a student at West Valley College, put 2.394 gallons of unleaded premium into his 1985 BMW 318 sedan Monday. He paid $7.23.

``I told myself when it went over $3, I wasn't going to buy gas,'' he said.

But he did because he was out of gas and on his way to work. ``It's way too much,'' he said of the price.
mercurynews.com