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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (134040)	8/23/2005 6:12:18 PM
From: Alan Smithee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793756

National Geographic's excellent "Inside 9-11" is available on DVD. Price is $29.95. shop.nationalgeographic.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (134040)	8/23/2005 10:22:37 PM
From: Constant Reader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793756

With a more upbeat assessment of the proposed Iraqi constitution is Brendan O'Leary, Lauder Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, co-editor of The Future of Kurdistan in Iraq, and a constitutional advisor to the Kurdistan Government: This story [a Washington Post article about the constitution] is mostly accurate, and better than most other accounts published today, including that in the New York Times. Five comments: (i) Kurdistan has achieved its 'red lines' in the negotiations. The KRG [Kurdistan Regional Government] retains its full domestic legal autonomy; the legal competences of the federal government are narrowly circumscribed, and less than those in the Transitional Administrative Law; and in a clash between regional and federal law in an arena of regional competence, regional law is supreme. The Peshmerga will be the internal security/regional guard of Kurdistan; and the KRG will be able to block the deployment of the Iraqi army within Kurdistan. Natural resources that are currently exploited are a joint competence with joint revenues; unexploited/new natural resources belong to the regions. Art. 58 of the TAL (reversing Saddam's 'Arabization') will be implemented, and there will be a referendum on Kirkuk and the disputed territories by 2007. The future constitutional amendment process requires the consent of the Kurdistan National Assembly if a change affects its powers. (ii) Kurdistan's delegation had no plans completely to exclude the Sunni delegation, as suggested by the quotation from the US ambassador. The Sunni delegates' utterly negative 'negotiating' strategy sidelined them from the federal bargain. Crudely, they misread 'consensus' as meaning 'unanimity' and thought they had a veto over the draft, which they sought to have fail before fresh elections. Their elites must learn that their days of barking orders towards the others are over. (iii) Women's rights are secure in Kurdistan; indeed, given the limited range of competences of the federal government, the ambit of Islamist jurisprudence (at federal level) over those regions that don't want it is frankly unimportant. Those who want Allah's law in their regions are free to apply it, but subject to the charter of rights and democratic principles. Women, by the way, retain the right to a minimum of a quarter of the places on electoral lists. (iv) Despite what you may read, the Sunni Arabs are most unlikely to have a blocking majority of two-thirds in three governorates. They would likely have Anbar and Salahaddin, if their voters turn out, but this would not enable them to block ratification. Provided minorities are protected in Ninevah and Diyala a Sunni 'no' vote cannot get two-thirds. There may be a paradox: al-Sadr may want to organize a 'no' vote, but he would then expose his voters to attacks by al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia and others. (v) The key player was Masoud Barzani - through whom deals were made, both with the UIA leadership and the US ambassador. It is difficult to imagine the deal having been done without Barzani's style and integrity. The US ambassador was immeasurably better than Bremer, and walked away from Washington's script, both from conviction and necessity. Norman Geras also quotes O'Leary extensively about what O'Leary calls the reality of the Iraqi resistance. Presumably one so close to the negotiations has some idea what actually is going on there and O'Leary's discussion is far more heartening than Juan Cole's posted here a couple of days ago. From Normblog: normblog.typepad.com