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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Umunhum who wrote (39724)	8/25/2005 1:10:27 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

What you DONT understand is that, if oil prices increases the other spending falls!!! You are stupidly assuming that people will spend all the money on oil AND also spend on ALL other items that they are currently buying!! That is not the reality (unless wage increases). In reality, they will stop spending on ipods, tvs, cars, movies etc. and hence those prices will fall - there will be deflation in those items because oil prices went up (ofcourse there is inflation in oil but deflation in movie tickets, cars, tvs, ipods etc - So, net, is it inflation or deflation) - If you still dont understand, let me know which part you dont understand.

To: Umunhum who wrote (39724)	8/26/2005 10:59:50 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

What You Want to Price In, uhmuhnum, Is That Quickly Rising energy costs are a potential Triggering Event, that unleashes Deflationary Pressures. You'll want to consider that. Besides, you don't really want to make such small points as I am not assuming anything. I am flat out saying that a rise in oil prices is inflationary...., backed up by a Webster's definition, do you? <<ggg>> I mean, this is the "The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory" board. You want to swing for the fences here. Seriously, I encourage you to muse on the idea of a Whoosh! of inflationary pressure (which we are surely now experiencing) as the trigger which enacts some very nasty deflationary pressures. What everyone seems to agree on is that Americans in the future will no longer be allowed to buy, as they have in the past. Now, you can either crush the people's purchasing power under an inflationary paradigm, or, you can crush the people's purchasing power under a deflationary, bone-crunching Anvil of widespread, rolling Debt default. No matter how you slice it, in both scenarios, activities like Reading are set to replace activities like Shopping. Big time. Regards, LP